|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
United States Metals Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, July 2011, Pages: 62
Business Monitor International's the United States Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, metals associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the United States's metals industry.
The US automotive market is driving growth across a broad range of metals sectors, particularly flat steel, zinc and lead, but the full recovery of markets to pre-recession levels will require a stronger response from residential housing, which is not expected in the near term.
Steel output continues to be led by flat steel production, although state-funded infrastructure projects should support longs. Producers remain nervous about bringing capacity online at a time of uncertainty, high costs and global over-supply. While a recovery is expected in construction steel products in 2011, it will be tenuous and uncertain. At the same time, US steelmakers are struggling with low rates of export growth, which will hamper the rate of growth over the medium term.
BMI forecasts crude and hot-rolled output growing 6.9% and 10.0% in 2011 to 86.24mn tonnes and 77.24mn tonnes respectively, while finished steel consumption should grow 6.0% to 84.91mn tonnes. These are upward revisions from the growth rates forecast in the previous quarterly report, reflecting the strength of the recovery in H111. Nevertheless, it will be some years before production returns to normal with little hope that rebar, heavy section and wire rod will reach 2008 levels by 2015. A poor structurals market, combined with uncertainty and fears of the impact of a double-dip recession on the housing market, have dented medium sections and beams and rebar, with no likelihood of a pick-up in transaction prices until H211 at the earliest.
The fortunes of the US zinc industry will broadly mirror the fate of the stainless steel sector, which is its main customer. With the automotive industry returning to full capacity over the next five years and the construction industry making slow progress, zinc refining should report steady growth with output reaching almost 305,000 tonnes by 2015, a 23% increase over 2010. The main constraint will be domestic capacity, which will be insufficient to cover domestic consumption as it increases to 1.18mn tonnes in 2015, up 31% over 2010. This will result in net imports of 877,000 tonnes by the end of the forecast period, up 34.3%.
The US aluminium market has witnessed growth amid surging automotive sales and rising consumer confidence. Automotive sales are widely expected to exceed 13mn units in 2011, up 11% year-on-year (yo- y), but this does not appear enough to ensure a rapid return to pre-recession operating rates. Domestic aluminium production, which stagnated in 2010, is catching up with demand and is set to grow 16.8% in 2011.
Despite growth in demand, US copper refining/smelting was at its lowest level in 20 years by Q111 as the industry continued to deal with cutbacks imposed in 2008. High copper and by-product prices favoured the restart of concentrate production at the expense of refined copper. Output is also undermined by ongoing problems at the 450,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) Asarco refinery in Amarillo, TX, one of the country’s largest copper refiners. Consumption is picking up and will continue to outpace production over the next five years, leading to net imports of well over 1mn tonnes by 2015.
The US lead industry is coming under renewed pressure from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and will be forced to improve refining production processes in order to sustain output at current levels. Output growth levels are likely to remain modest over the next five years, while consumption will strengthen in line with the recovery in the automotive industry, leading to a sharp increase in refined lead imports.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
