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Shaping Tomorrow's Marketplace: Investment Philosophies for Emerging Markets and a Semi-Globalized World
Description:
This book looks at the economies of emerging markets and investigates what industries look most promising in which region and/or countries.
Emerging markets have been around for a while as an investment theme and as such have been off and on the list for many investors and corporations worldwide during the last 20 years depending on where we were in the global economic cycle. In fact, the term emerging markets actually has become obsolete as it now covers a long list of countries with each country reflecting a different economic, industrial, cultural and monetary outlook. Despite the fact that they make up about 35% of global GDP (and that is expected to grow to 50% over the next 20 years) these many investors (and companies likewise) have a minor, although growing, exposure to those regions in the world. Home bias and the historical super cyclical nature of those regions have made investors stay away or move in and out while riding the hot money wave. So far for globalization pur sang.
Since the 2008-2009 financial crisis those regions have obtained more visibility than ever before as a place with increasing financial stability and a more balanced economic outlook and clear dynamics for growth. But what makes them really attractive and how to select from such a heterogeneous pool of economies? In this book we look behind the curtain of these economies and evidence what industries look most promising in which region and/or countries. Cruising the different regions and countries using real-life examples this book fleshes out the dynamics of these economies and the industries that will give some of those countries a long-term competitive advantage in tomorrow's global economy. Moving beyond the credo's of 'the rising middleclass', 'rising domestic demand', 'excellent demographics' and the 'unlimited need for infrastructure' shaping tomorrow's marketplace helps you develop your investment or corporate philosophy to navigate those countries and the ever-growing economic interconnectedness of these economies.
This book allows you to develop your set of philosophies to determine which industries in which economies deserve attention and what financial products are most suitable to get access to those markets and the opportunities you spotted in a meaningful way. Performance and trends per asset class will be reviewed. It further evaluates the corporate strategic options that will determine or enhance success for corporations active or looking to be active in these economies - a challenge many took on but so far only a few mastered the art of embracing those often challenging environments. In line with contemporary thinking, managing and diversifying types of risk will play a crucial role in the background.
Finally, the book demonstrates how in a semi-globalized world, where capital flows after the crisis have become more regionalized, the role of OECD economies will be crucial for the further development of those emerging economies and which industries will ultimately contribute to shaping tomorrow's marketplace. Part of that equation will force us to look at the long-term impact of new age protectionism, austerity and other ways governments and societies are dealing with the new reality since the crisis and how a reversal in globalization patterns could affect the outlook for those economies and the global economy as a whole and ultimately your investment philosophies.
Emerging markets have been around for a while as an investment theme and as such have been off and on the list for many investors and corporations worldwide during the last 20 years depending on where we were in the global economic cycle. In fact, the term emerging markets actually has become obsolete as it now covers a long list of countries with each country reflecting a different economic, industrial, cultural and monetary outlook. Despite the fact that they make up about 35% of global GDP (and that is expected to grow to 50% over the next 20 years) these many investors (and companies likewise) have a minor, although growing, exposure to those regions in the world. Home bias and the historical super cyclical nature of those regions have made investors stay away or move in and out while riding the hot money wave. So far for globalization pur sang.
Since the 2008-2009 financial crisis those regions have obtained more visibility than ever before as a place with increasing financial stability and a more balanced economic outlook and clear dynamics for growth. But what makes them really attractive and how to select from such a heterogeneous pool of economies? In this book we look behind the curtain of these economies and evidence what industries look most promising in which region and/or countries. Cruising the different regions and countries using real-life examples this book fleshes out the dynamics of these economies and the industries that will give some of those countries a long-term competitive advantage in tomorrow's global economy. Moving beyond the credo's of 'the rising middleclass', 'rising domestic demand', 'excellent demographics' and the 'unlimited need for infrastructure' shaping tomorrow's marketplace helps you develop your investment or corporate philosophy to navigate those countries and the ever-growing economic interconnectedness of these economies.
This book allows you to develop your set of philosophies to determine which industries in which economies deserve attention and what financial products are most suitable to get access to those markets and the opportunities you spotted in a meaningful way. Performance and trends per asset class will be reviewed. It further evaluates the corporate strategic options that will determine or enhance success for corporations active or looking to be active in these economies - a challenge many took on but so far only a few mastered the art of embracing those often challenging environments. In line with contemporary thinking, managing and diversifying types of risk will play a crucial role in the background.
Finally, the book demonstrates how in a semi-globalized world, where capital flows after the crisis have become more regionalized, the role of OECD economies will be crucial for the further development of those emerging economies and which industries will ultimately contribute to shaping tomorrow's marketplace. Part of that equation will force us to look at the long-term impact of new age protectionism, austerity and other ways governments and societies are dealing with the new reality since the crisis and how a reversal in globalization patterns could affect the outlook for those economies and the global economy as a whole and ultimately your investment philosophies.
Contents:
Preface
About the author
1 What a challenging environment we live in!
The gap between reality and investment behaviour
The minimum conditions for a successful further integration of
emerging markets in the global economy
The (potential) role of scenario modelling of the future
Globalisation and competition
The dilapidated Western democracy with little problem-solving capacity
Black Swans and our addiction to probability analysis
Reforming the global landscape in a meaningful way
Potential role of the decoupling theme
2 The fall of Communism and the rise of an enlarged Europe
A brief overview of (recent) history
The complexities and intertwining of Russian economy and politics
Protectionism being part of the economic landscape
State finances
Areas of potential economic interest
The wider CIS region and its potential
The CEE region and its inclusion in the wider Europe
The future of the CEE economies
Meaningful and sustainable growth as a country-by-country phenomenon
The battered financial services industry in the CEE region
Gaining access to those (few) opportunities
3 The final and maybe last frontier markets
Classifying the dynamics of the region and its countries
SSA after the 2008 financial crisis
The industry mix that makes the region and its individual countries attractive
Regional multi-industry development on the continent
The China-Africa axis and its implications
Bi-polar SSA continued
The infrastructure theme
The resources play
Back to the consumer
Variety in African opportunities
Some sort of temporary conclusion
4 Making up our minds: Middle East, MENA or MENASA as an integrated emerging cluster?
Setting the stage
How oil and gas was the beginning, but not the end (hopefully)
The rise of Islamic finance
The public markets in the MENA region
The family business within the context of state capitalism
Turkey – a country with more potential than it realises
The role of conglomerates in the Middle East (and emerging
markets overall)
The more diversified economies of Northern Africa
The consumer markets in the MENA region
The conventional fixed-income markets in the MENA region
The UAE – more than oil and gas, but too fast, too furious
Risks and challenges undermining the future of business and the
long-term potential of the region
Time to draw a conclusion and ways of seeking exposure
5 Latin America: formerly known as the next emerging markets
The emerging customer
Natural resources in the region
Agribusiness and efforts in relation to climate change
Mexico: the manufacturing hub of the US
Is there only good news?
Consumer preferences and behaviours as a source of investment
opportunities
Private equity in a Latin world full of small and medium sized entities (SMEs)
Fixed income markets in the region
The next emerging markets revisited: conclusion
6 The shifting pendulum: Asia to be (part of) the global centre stage
Asia: a bi-polar region
China: the manufacturing hub of the world (and some other features)
The world’s largest consumer market in the making
Where to go from here?
The next leader in green energy and technology
India: slow(er) but beautiful
An infrastructure-happy spending government
The relentless need for energy (and policy)
Understanding the Indian consumer
Real estate
Offshore aerospace engineering
South-East Asia: more than the next workshop of the world
Fixed income markets in the region
Wrap up and outlook
7 Corporate emerging markets – aspirations and reality
Framework development
Identifying business opportunities and formulating matching
corporate strategies in emerging markets
Value creation in emerging markets
The way forward: visible hurdles and attempts to define
(a possible) transitory endgame
The battle continues
8 Philosophies, performance and conclusion
Derivatives in emerging markets
The link between commodities and emerging markets
‘The West versus the rest’ paradigm
Emerging markets open up new trade corridors and ways to
facilitate trade across emerging markets
The emerging markets ETF space
Real estate or how the economy colonised our Lebenswelt
The cost of global finance
The good, the bad and the ugly of performance
Building your own investment philosophies regarding emerging
markets and global portfolios – the impossible task of concluding
Postscript
About the author
1 What a challenging environment we live in!
The gap between reality and investment behaviour
The minimum conditions for a successful further integration of
emerging markets in the global economy
The (potential) role of scenario modelling of the future
Globalisation and competition
The dilapidated Western democracy with little problem-solving capacity
Black Swans and our addiction to probability analysis
Reforming the global landscape in a meaningful way
Potential role of the decoupling theme
2 The fall of Communism and the rise of an enlarged Europe
A brief overview of (recent) history
The complexities and intertwining of Russian economy and politics
Protectionism being part of the economic landscape
State finances
Areas of potential economic interest
The wider CIS region and its potential
The CEE region and its inclusion in the wider Europe
The future of the CEE economies
Meaningful and sustainable growth as a country-by-country phenomenon
The battered financial services industry in the CEE region
Gaining access to those (few) opportunities
3 The final and maybe last frontier markets
Classifying the dynamics of the region and its countries
SSA after the 2008 financial crisis
The industry mix that makes the region and its individual countries attractive
Regional multi-industry development on the continent
The China-Africa axis and its implications
Bi-polar SSA continued
The infrastructure theme
The resources play
Back to the consumer
Variety in African opportunities
Some sort of temporary conclusion
4 Making up our minds: Middle East, MENA or MENASA as an integrated emerging cluster?
Setting the stage
How oil and gas was the beginning, but not the end (hopefully)
The rise of Islamic finance
The public markets in the MENA region
The family business within the context of state capitalism
Turkey – a country with more potential than it realises
The role of conglomerates in the Middle East (and emerging
markets overall)
The more diversified economies of Northern Africa
The consumer markets in the MENA region
The conventional fixed-income markets in the MENA region
The UAE – more than oil and gas, but too fast, too furious
Risks and challenges undermining the future of business and the
long-term potential of the region
Time to draw a conclusion and ways of seeking exposure
5 Latin America: formerly known as the next emerging markets
The emerging customer
Natural resources in the region
Agribusiness and efforts in relation to climate change
Mexico: the manufacturing hub of the US
Is there only good news?
Consumer preferences and behaviours as a source of investment
opportunities
Private equity in a Latin world full of small and medium sized entities (SMEs)
Fixed income markets in the region
The next emerging markets revisited: conclusion
6 The shifting pendulum: Asia to be (part of) the global centre stage
Asia: a bi-polar region
China: the manufacturing hub of the world (and some other features)
The world’s largest consumer market in the making
Where to go from here?
The next leader in green energy and technology
India: slow(er) but beautiful
An infrastructure-happy spending government
The relentless need for energy (and policy)
Understanding the Indian consumer
Real estate
Offshore aerospace engineering
South-East Asia: more than the next workshop of the world
Fixed income markets in the region
Wrap up and outlook
7 Corporate emerging markets – aspirations and reality
Framework development
Identifying business opportunities and formulating matching
corporate strategies in emerging markets
Value creation in emerging markets
The way forward: visible hurdles and attempts to define
(a possible) transitory endgame
The battle continues
8 Philosophies, performance and conclusion
Derivatives in emerging markets
The link between commodities and emerging markets
‘The West versus the rest’ paradigm
Emerging markets open up new trade corridors and ways to
facilitate trade across emerging markets
The emerging markets ETF space
Real estate or how the economy colonised our Lebenswelt
The cost of global finance
The good, the bad and the ugly of performance
Building your own investment philosophies regarding emerging
markets and global portfolios – the impossible task of concluding
Postscript
Reviews
An excellent thought provoking piece that provides some creative ideas and unique perspectives on how investors can better understand, navigate and integrate the benefits of allocating to Emerging Markets or rather Growth Economies in the context of a global investment portfolio.
It provides an incisive account backed by a wealth of economic and financial data on the interconnectedness between the Growth economies and the Developed world, analyses the dynamic shifts in political, economic and financial power of the Growth Economies and their ability to influence the topography of the Developed world. In addition to the BRIC countries, there are another eleven Growth Economies that are likely to impact investors mindset, their investment behaviour and risk/reward appetites. Certainly a must read for global investors. [Sohail Jaffer, Partner, FWU Luxembourg]
It provides an incisive account backed by a wealth of economic and financial data on the interconnectedness between the Growth economies and the Developed world, analyses the dynamic shifts in political, economic and financial power of the Growth Economies and their ability to influence the topography of the Developed world. In addition to the BRIC countries, there are another eleven Growth Economies that are likely to impact investors mindset, their investment behaviour and risk/reward appetites. Certainly a must read for global investors. [Sohail Jaffer, Partner, FWU Luxembourg]
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