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Indonesia Infrastructure Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Aug 2011, Pages: 105
Business Monitor International's Indonesia Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, infrastructure associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Indonesia's infrastructure industry.
BMI View:
Indonesia's construction industry achieved lower-than-expected growth rates in the first quarter of 2011, prompting the analysts to downwardly revise the full-year real growth forecasts for the sector to 6.3% in 2011 (previously 7.4%). BMI believes that this weaker growth is due to the rising cost of inputs and the fact there has been no resolution with regard to problems with regulatory issues in the construction sector.
While the rate of inflation is likely to ease in the second half of this year, regulatory issues are unlikely to be resolved quickly, and this could have ramifications for the growth potential in the construction sector over the long term. Nevertheless, construction activity, driven by investment into transport and energy infrastructure, as well as industrial construction related to the country's growing mining sector, is expected to be relatively robust between 2012 and 2015, averaging 7.3% per annum.
Key factors that will facilitate growth include:
- In April 2011, Indonesia hosted the Indonesia International Infrastructure 2011 Conference & Exhibition, where the Indonesian government showcased 16 infrastructure projects worth more than US$30bn. These 16 projects are to be offered under a public private partnership (PPP) framework and will focus on a wide variety of infrastructure developments including toll roads, bridges, railways, seaports, power plants, water treatment facilities and cruise terminals.
- In May 2011, a consortium comprising of Japan-based utility J-Power , Japan-based trading conglomerate Itochu and Indonesia-based coal miner Adaro Energy was selected as the preferred bidder for the Jawa Tengah plant, estimated to be worth IDR30trn (US$3.3bn). The project involves the construction of two 1,000MW coal-fired power plants in the district of Pemalang and is expected to be completed by 2017.
- In May 2011, the Indonesian government launched 17 new infrastructure projects worth INR190trn (US$22.3bn) as part of the 2011-2025 Master Plan for the Acceleration and Expansion of Indonesian Economic Development (MP3EI). The projects, mostly industrial construction projects, were launched at numerous locations: Sei Mangke in the province of North Sumatra, Cilegon in Banten, Lombok Timur, East Nusa Tenggara and Timika, Papua.
Indonesia's business environment continues to pose downside risks for investors. Although the Indonesian government is working hard to attract private investors, there is still an underlying threat of corruption and a lack of transparency in the tendering process. The biggest concern is that Indonesia appears to be regressing in its fight against corruption, with a raft of proposals – that if approved – would undermine current anti graft laws. This culminates in a score of just 55.6 out of 100 for infrastructure business environment.
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