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Argentina Infrastructure Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 58
Business Monitor International's Argentina Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, infrastructure associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Argentina's infrastructure industry.
BMI's medium-to-long term core view broadly prices in the US$10bn Chinese credit agreement for Argentine railways as the main factor driving growth in Argentina's infrastructure sector in the coming years. While such projects and robust economic activity should allow the sector to comfortably maintain average yearly growth of 5% in real terms throughout the core forecast period to 2015, the report asserts that a post-election change in policy is required to lure new capital into the sector.
Construction sector growth of 8% year-on-year (y-o-y) during Q111 (according to estimates from Argentina's national statistics agency Indec) has prompted BMI to upwardly revise its annual real construction sector growth forecast from 5.2% (expected in the last quarter) to 6.2% y-o-y for 2011. This growth, however, does not change BMI's core view for 2011 and the government is expected to channel funds into other areas – aimed at drawing provincial votes and quelling social instability – and to largely ignore investment in infrastructure and construction.
However, the following developments suggest that the sector will maintain momentum:
- In July 2011, the Autovia del Mar consortium was awarded the 30-year concession to operate and maintain the Costa Atlantica toll road network. Over the 30-year period, the concessionaire will spend ARS8bn (US$2bn) on the upgrade and maintenance of the network. The consortium is comprised of local companies Benito Roggio e Hijos and Esuco y Helport, part of the Eurnekian group.
- Expansion of the Buenos Aires metro appears likely to resume, with a loan application in place with the European Investment Bank (EIB) and the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) expected to get underway sometime in 2011. Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires is reportedly seeking financial assistance of up to EUR200mn (US$290mn) from the EIB.
- The provincial government of Córdoba in Argentina is looking to launch tenders for nearly ARS1.01bn (US$244mn) of new beltway construction projects in Córdoba and Las Varillas city. Construction work at Section I of the Córdoba beltway, budgeted at ARS590mn (US$142.53mn), involves developing a 13.8km stretch between provincial highways 5 and 20. Section II, valued at ARS186mn (US$44.93mn), will include construction of a 3.4km passage between Colón avenue and highway 20. Moreover, the ARS10.6mn (US$2.56mn) Las Varillas beltway project will involve the construction of a 3km stretch between national highway 158 and provincial highway 13.
A risk worth highlighting, however, is that the government has been trying to solicit private investment with limited success. Foreign investors remain wary of partnering with the government on major infrastructure projects, due to concerns about the country's debt sustainability. A further major area of concern is the highly regulated business environment, which can deter new investors.
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