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United Kingdom Tourism Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Aug 2011, Pages: 45
Business Monitor International's (BMI) United Kingdom Tourism Report (Q4 2011) provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on United Kingdom's tourism industry.
A great number of visitors will be travelling the UK to attend or take part in the 2012 Olympics and Paralympics in London. While tourism in 2012 will increase due to the amount of people from around the world attending the games – BMI forecasts 35.08mn tourist arrivals in 2012 – arrivals are also forecast to increase following the events. The ‘legacy effect’ of the games, thanks to the media exposure and publicity associated with the Olympics (3.9bn people watched the 2000 Olympics in Sydney) can last for up to a decade following the event. According to research by the national tourism agency VisitBritain, VisitLondon and Oxford Economics, for the post-games period of 2013-2017 a legacy effect of GBP1.27bn is forecast for the UK and of GBP0.88bn for London.
UK transport group Stobart is working on growing the Southend Airport, which is a 50-minute train ride from London, into yet another feeder for the capital. The group is hoping to capitalise on the increase in air traffic associated with the Olympics in 2012. Stobart has completed the construction of a new railway station and control tower, while the runway extension and airport hotel construction are ongoing. Stobart expects Air Arann to carry 300,000 passengers a year to Southend.
After dropping in 2009 to under US$27.27mn, tourist expenditure started to climb back up in 2010, reaching US$29.12mn by the end of the year. BMI forecasts expenditure by tourists in the UK to continue to increase, reaching almost US$40mn by 2014. Also forecast to increase is tourism expenditure’s contribution to the UK’s GDP. In 2010, tourism expenditure accounted for 2.00% of GDP. This is expected to increase to 2.13% by 2015.
Europe is the UK’s main regional source market for inbound tourism. The region is forecast to account for nearly 25.30mn tourists in 2011, and this is predicted to increase to 32.92mn by 2015. In second and third place are North America and the Asia Pacific region. In 2011, 4.39mn tourists are expected to visit the UK from North America, while 3.58mn will come from Asia Pacific. By 2015, Asia Pacific arrivals are forecast to outpace North American arrivals slightly at 4.77mn compared to 4.47mn.
After decreasing in 2009, international tourism expenditure by UK residents is forecast to increase from US$77.24mn in 2010 to US$109.61mn in 2015. In line with this forecast, the number of total departures by residents is also forecast to increase, from 68.12mn in 2010 to 78.53mn in 2015. The majority of UK residents visit Europe, with a forecast 54.09mn expected to head to the region in 2011 and 59.07mn forecast to be travelling to Europe in 2015. In distant second and third place are North America and Asia Pacific. In 2011, 4.60mn UK residents are forecast to travel to North America, while 4.46mn will travel to the Asia Pacific region. Out of the two regions, Asia Pacific should experience the most growth by 2015, with 6.50mn UK residents making it their destination of choice and only 4.66mn going to North America.
The UK hotel industry is also forecast to grow. Despite the recent recession, and for some hoteliers because of it, operators are expanding in the UK. The country’s largest hotel operator, Whitbread, plans to open 18 hotels in 2011 and steadily increase that number thereafter. A third Four Seasons hotel is scheduled to open in 2014 in London and the budget hotel chain Travelodge is building 13 new hotels in and around the UK’s major cities, with four in the London area.
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