Venezuela Telecommunications Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, August 2011, Pages: 79
Business Monitor International's (BMI) Venezuela Telecommunications Report (Q4 2011) provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Venezuela's telecommunications industry.
The mobile market in Venezuela continues its decline this quarter. According to Q111 data, there are 28.753mn mobile subscribers in the country, which marks a decrease from Q410. The number of active subscribers totalled 27.192mn, a 2.4% decrease from Q410. These decreases reflect several quarters of subscriber losses for all operators in the market besides Movilnet, which reported marginal growth this quarter. This reflects Movilnet’s continued drive to increase penetration among low income segments of the Venezuelan population. In Venezuela, operators have to constantly discount unused SIMs, as users switch to different networks to take advantage of appealing tariffs and promotions. Movistar reports increasing net losses in subscriber numbers.
The mobile penetration rate in Venezuela has reached more than 100%, which means the protracted growth trend is likely to remain. Operators will have to identify new ways to generate revenue besides reliance on organic growth, which explains Movistar’s push for more data services, and the resulting increase in ARPU this quarter, despite the inflationary pressures pushing down the value of Movistar revenues.
Although there is little data available, BMI believes Digitel is also continuing to target high-end subscribers. BMI believes future revenues for Digitel and Movistar are likely to continue growing as a result, but is worried that by focusing so strongly on low-income consumers, Movilnet is likely to miss out on the high revenue segment of the population and such a strategy is unlikely to sustain revenue growth.
The fixed-line market grew this quarter, but BMI do not expect this trend to continue indefinitely. Like other Latin American markets, fixed-line telephony is being replaced with mobile telephony. BMI therefore expect to see some quarters of negative growth in the fixed-line market this quarter. Mobile services will be the driver of telephony in the long term.
Broadband continues to grow at an exceptional pace, with more than 120,000 new broadband connections in the country in Q111. BMI expects Venezuela will join its neighbours, with mobile broadband services taking off and driving growth. However, fixed-line incumbent CANTV, which owns Movilnet, has yet to push its 3G services and particularly mobile broadband. This is a concern for BMI as the operator has the potential to be a major driver of broadband connectivity over mobile networks, considering its strong status as the largest operator and its push into more rural areas.
Following reports of President Hugo Chávez’s illness this quarter, there is much uncertainty over the future business environment of Venezuela and the markets have rallied in the hope of an improvement in business environment should the president step down. However, BMI believes such moves are too premature to mark an improvement in the business environment. BMI continues with its bearish view for the economy and expect foreign investment in the telecoms sector to continue to be protracted.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Venezuela Mobile SWOT Analysis
Venezuela Wireline SWOT Analysis
Venezuela Political SWOT
Venezuela Economic SWOT
Venezuela Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment
Latin America Business Environment Ratings
Venezuela
Table: Q411 Business Environment Rankings
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
Table: Venezuela Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015
ARPU
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile ARPU - Historical Data And Forecasts
Fixed Line
Table: Venezuela Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008 - 2015
Internet
Table: Venezuela Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015
Market Data Analysis
Mobile
Table: Venezuela Wireless Market, Q111
Table: Venezuela Wireless Market, Net Additions -Q410-Q111
Subscriber Mix
ARPU AND MOU
3G
Mobile Contract Wins
Table: Venezuela - Selected Recent Contracts Awarded
Mobile Content
Country Outlook
Value-Added Services Timeline
Table: Venezuela - Selected Recent Contracts Awarded
Mobile Operator Data
Table: Venezuela Mobile Market Overview
Table: Digitel
Table: Movilnet (CANTV)
Table: Movistar
Fixed Line
Table: Venezuela Local Market, Q111
Table: CANTV Fixed-Line Revenue Breakdown (VEFmn)
Pay-TV
Table: Venezuela Pay-TV Market 2009-2011
Broadband
Table: Venezuela Internet Market 2010-2011 By Connection Type (’000)
Triple Play
Mobile Broadband
Telecentres And Cybercafés
Submarine Cables
Table: Venezuela Wireline Developments
Regulatory Environment
Division of Regulatory Responsibilities In Venezuela
Table: Venezuela Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Regulations
Industry Developments
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Table: Key Players - Venezuelan Telecoms Sector
Table: Selected Operator Financial Indicators
Company Monitor
Table: Pace Annual Financial Results (£mn)
Operator Profiles
Compañía Anónima de Teléfonos de Venezuela (CANTV)
Telefónica Móviles Venezuela (Movistar)
Corporación Digitel
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Fixed Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Internet
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Table: Regional Internet Penetration Overview
Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Country Snapshot: Venezuela Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecassts
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings System
Indicators
Table: Ratings Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Sources
- Compañía Anónima de Teléfonos de Venezuela (CANTV)
- Telefónica Móviles Venezuela (Movistar)
- Corporación Digitel
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