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Kazakhstan Food and Drink Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Aug 2011, Pages: 82
Business Monitor International's Kazakhstan Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Kazakhstan's food and drink industry.
BMI sees Kazakhstan as one of the Commonwealth of Independent States’ most promising consumer markets. With a population of close to 16mn, it is not as big as Russia or Ukraine but still has a fair degree of potential. Doing business is more straightforward in Kazakhstan than in either Russia or Ukraine; the latter two are among Europe’s worst when it comes to bureaucratic hurdles. Kazakhstan produces oil and natural gas and has fairly strong economic growth prospects. On the consumer side, BMI particularly likes the beer sector, which is well served by Carlsberg and Anadolu Efes’ emerging Europe-focused international brewing unit Efes Breweries International (EBI). Estimated at about 30 litres per annum, per capita beer consumption is growing from a low base, certainly compared to nearby Russia where about 70 litres are consumed annually per capita.
Headline Industry Data
- 2011 per capita food consumption (local currency) +7.4%, forecast to 2015 +53.6%
- 2011 alcoholic drink sales volumes +8.4%, forecast to 2015 +60.8%
- 2011 soft drink sales volumes +9.0%, forecast to 2015 +61.5 %
Key Industry Trends and Developments
Hardee’s To Open 12 Restaurants In Kazakhstan: US fast-food firm CKE Restaurants, parent company of restaurants such as Hardee’s and Carl’s Jr., has announced the opening of the first two of at least 12 Hardee’s restaurants in Kazakhstan, QSRweb reports. These restaurants are operated by Americana Group/Kuwait Food Company, the second largest licensee in the CKE system with more than 200 Hardee’s restaurants throughout the Middle East and North Africa. Hardee’s is the first large Western fast-food hamburger chain to open in the Kazakhstan market.
Key Risks to Outlook
- Levels Of Foreign Direct Investment: Upside risks to BMI's forecasts are provided by the ongoing development and expansion of the Islamic finance industry in Kazakhstan, which has the potential to attract more foreign investors, in particular from member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council.
- Fall in Commodity Prices: The most obvious risk to BMI's upbeat stance on Kazakhstan’s economy is a fall in commodity prices. Oil exports in particular are of crucial importance, and a very sharp decline in the price of oil would no doubt undermine the country’s growth story. That said, BMI's base scenario already foresees oil prices moderating somewhat, with Brent crude forecast to return below US$100/bbl through the latter half of 2011, and BMI's Kazakhstan forecasts reflect such an assumption. Therefore, only a dramatic decrease in oil prices (of approximately 75%) would seriously alter BMI's upbeat outlook.
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