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Hungary Real Estate Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 48
Business Monitor International's Hungary Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, real estate associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hungary's Real Estate industry.
Hungary’s real estate market, like so many others, was seriously damaged by the global financial crisis. Economic growth is now returning and with that will come an uptick in demand for office and retail space, as well as industrial property.
The particular problems that are specific (but not unique) to Hungary’s real estate market are: - A weakened banking sector is restricting access to finance. Moody's Investors Service has noted that the banking sector is characterised by a high FX debt rate of more than 70%. The percentage of Swiss franc loans is particularly high, in an environment where households generally have no foreign currency income which would provide a natural hedge against currency rate risks. ‘The large amount of foreign-currency lending to households underpins the rating agency's expectation that asset quality will deteriorate further, as these borrowers' ability to service their debt has weakened significantly following more than 30% depreciation of the forint against the Swiss franc in recent years,’ Moody's Vice President and Senior Analyst Simone Zampa said.
- The present economic recovery is narrowly based. It is being built on the strength of manufactured exports to Germany. Domestic demand remains weak and is not expected to pick up until 2012.
A more positive view was expressed by CB Richard Ellis (CBRE)’s head of capital markets, Tim O’ Sullivan, who commented that rents on the property market have stabilised and 2012 will see a compression in yields. Thus, those who want to buy can now do so at a discount compared to the popular Polish market. Still, he conceded that the overall perception of Hungary’s risk is still in the negatives.
‘Investors on the ground understand what is going on and are now far more willing to invest. However, those that have yet to enter the country and are gathering information from the media or their respective companies’ research departments are still nervous and will be difficult to convince,’ O’Sullivan said.
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