Oman Telecommunications Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, September 2011, Pages: 93
Business Monitor International's Poland Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's telecommunications industry.
BMI’s analysis and forecast in this quarter's report is based on regulatory and operator data for the fourth quarter of 2011. It includes updates to their mobile, fixed-line and internet forecasts. Meanwhile, the telecoms regulator and fixed-line incumbent operator Omantel published ARPU figures for Q111 (Omantel previously published ARPU data on an annual basis). These have been incorporated into BMIs five-year ARPU forecast for the Omani mobile market.
Oman remains in sixth position this quarter on BMI’s Business Environment Ratings update for Middle East and North Africa. However, it scores below the regional average in the Industry Rewards category as intense competition drives down ARPUs and market saturation reduces subscriber growth opportunities. However, BMI are encouraged by the continued investment in modern fixed and mobile networks by the operators, a move that will facilitate the rollout of higher value services in the future.
According to the Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (TRA), there were 4.474mn mobile subscribers in Oman at the end of March 2011. This represented a decrease of 2.9% q-o-q, the first ever quarterly contraction to the Omani mobile market. Mobile services resellers accounted for 10.6% of the total subscriber base, while Omantel and Nawras had market shares of 46.2% and 43.2% respectively.
The decline in subscribers during Q111 confirms BMI’s view of slowing subscriber growth expressed in our previous reports. BMI believe the implementation of the regulator’s directive to disconnect inactive lines is largely responsible for the subscriber losses. Meanwhile, with a market penetration rate above 150%, BMI believe network operators will focus more on migrating their existing prepaid subscribers unto higher value postpaid services in order to drive revenue growth. That said, BMI expect growth to return in the latter quarters of the year and for the remainder of their forecast period, albeit at significantly slower rates than in previous years. By 2015, BMI forecast mobile penetration 167.3%, with 3G subscriptions accounting for about 58.5% of total mobile subscriptions.
According to the regulator, the number of active fixed-line subscriptions dropped by 3.1% q-o-q to 273,123 during the first three months of 2011. BMI envisage the decline in fixed-line subscriptions falling further over our forecast period, despite the best efforts of Omantel and Nawras. BMI forecast fixed-line penetration in Oman to drop below the 8% mark by the end of 2015. One of the main reasons for the falling demand for fixed lines is the increasing use of wireless networks for internet access. According to the regulator, there were 2.030mn 3G subscribers in Oman at the end of Q111. Although most of these access the network on mobile phones, BMI believe a growing number of subscribers are using dedicated USB modems to access the internet. BMI forecast Oman will have about 692,000 broadband subscribers at the end of 2011, most of which access the web over wireless networks. By the end of 2015, we expect that Oman’s broadband penetration rates should surpass the 40% mark.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Oman Mobile SWOT
Oman Wireline SWOT
Oman Political SWOT
Oman Economic SWOT
Oman Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment
Middle East And Africa
Middle East And North Africa Q411 Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Oman
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2015
ARPU
Table: Monthly Blended ARPU
Fixed Line
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2015
Internet
Table: Oman Internet Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015
Market Data Analysis
Mobile
Table: Oman Mobile Subscribers – Q111
Table: Oman Mobile Net Additions Market
Customer Divisions
ARPU
MVNOs
3G
Mobile Contract Wins
Table: Mobile Contract Wins
Mobile Operator Data
Table: Oman Mobile Market Overview
Table: Omantel
Table: Nawras
Table: Resellers
Mobile Content
Regional Outlook
Country Outlook
Mobile Banking
Value-Added Services Timeline
Table: Selected VAS Services
Fixed Line
Fixed Wireless
VoIP
Incumbent Privatisation
Internet
Broadband
Mobile Broadband
Wireline Contract Wins
Table: Wireline Contract Wins
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments
Table: Oman Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Legislation And Market Liberalisation
Regulation
Licensing And Spectrum
Industry Developments
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Table: Key Players: Oman Telecoms Sector
Table: Oman Financial Indicators
Company Monitor
Huawei Technologies
Huawei Technologies - Key Financial Data (US$mn)
Huawei - Recent Contract Wins/Developments In Middle East & North Africa
Operator Profiles
Omantel
Nawras Telecom
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Fixed Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Broadband
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Country Snapshot: Oman Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Ratings Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Sources
- Omantel
- Nawras Telecom
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