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Oman Telecommunications Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 93
Business Monitor International's Poland Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's telecommunications industry.
BMI’s analysis and forecast in this quarter's report is based on regulatory and operator data for the fourth quarter of 2011. It includes updates to their mobile, fixed-line and internet forecasts. Meanwhile, the telecoms regulator and fixed-line incumbent operator Omantel published ARPU figures for Q111 (Omantel previously published ARPU data on an annual basis). These have been incorporated into BMIs five-year ARPU forecast for the Omani mobile market.
Oman remains in sixth position this quarter on BMI’s Business Environment Ratings update for Middle East and North Africa. However, it scores below the regional average in the Industry Rewards category as intense competition drives down ARPUs and market saturation reduces subscriber growth opportunities. However, BMI are encouraged by the continued investment in modern fixed and mobile networks by the operators, a move that will facilitate the rollout of higher value services in the future.
According to the Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (TRA), there were 4.474mn mobile subscribers in Oman at the end of March 2011. This represented a decrease of 2.9% q-o-q, the first ever quarterly contraction to the Omani mobile market. Mobile services resellers accounted for 10.6% of the total subscriber base, while Omantel and Nawras had market shares of 46.2% and 43.2% respectively.
The decline in subscribers during Q111 confirms BMI’s view of slowing subscriber growth expressed in our previous reports. BMI believe the implementation of the regulator’s directive to disconnect inactive lines is largely responsible for the subscriber losses. Meanwhile, with a market penetration rate above 150%, BMI believe network operators will focus more on migrating their existing prepaid subscribers unto higher value postpaid services in order to drive revenue growth. That said, BMI expect growth to return in the latter quarters of the year and for the remainder of their forecast period, albeit at significantly slower rates than in previous years. By 2015, BMI forecast mobile penetration 167.3%, with 3G subscriptions accounting for about 58.5% of total mobile subscriptions.
According to the regulator, the number of active fixed-line subscriptions dropped by 3.1% q-o-q to 273,123 during the first three months of 2011. BMI envisage the decline in fixed-line subscriptions falling further over our forecast period, despite the best efforts of Omantel and Nawras. BMI forecast fixed-line penetration in Oman to drop below the 8% mark by the end of 2015. One of the main reasons for the falling demand for fixed lines is the increasing use of wireless networks for internet access. According to the regulator, there were 2.030mn 3G subscribers in Oman at the end of Q111. Although most of these access the network on mobile phones, BMI believe a growing number of subscribers are using dedicated USB modems to access the internet. BMI forecast Oman will have about 692,000 broadband subscribers at the end of 2011, most of which access the web over wireless networks. By the end of 2015, we expect that Oman’s broadband penetration rates should surpass the 40% mark.
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