- Language: English
- 572 Pages
- Published: November 2012
- Region: Global
Zimbabwe Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2011
- Published: September 2011
- Region: Zimbabwe
- 79 Pages
- Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International's (BMI) Zimbabwe Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report (Q4 2011) provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Zimbabwe's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
BMI View: Zimbabwe remains a very challenging pharmaceutical market, with political and economic difficulties compounded by shortcomings in healthcare and physical infrastructure. While BMI expects low double-digit growth for the pharmaceutical market in years to come, this is from a low base and well below the year-on-year (y-o-y) growth rates achieved before the country’s 2008 economic crisis. Low per-capita drug expenditure of just US$11 highlights the key weaknesses in this market. While the country’s demographic and epidemiological profiles are potentially attractive to foreign investors, Zimbabwe’s longer-term potential will remain below par until the wider operating environment is substantially improved.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: US$142mn in 2010 to US$160mn in 2011; +12.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from Q311 due to analyst modification.
- Healthcare US$751mn in 2010 to US$810mn in 2011; +7.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q311.
- Medical devices: US$40mn in 2010 to US$44mn in 2011; +11.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly unchanged from Q311.
Business Environment Rating: Zimbabwe remains firmly at the bottom of BMI’s Business Environment Ratings for Q411, which looks at 19 key regional markets and now includes Ghana and Iraq. Zimbabwe’s pharmaceutical rating is just 28, unchanged from the previous quarter and well below its regional peers.
Key Trends & Developments
- BMI believes that uncompetitive local drugmakers in Zimbabwe can only survive with government intervention or foreign direct investment (FDI). This needs to come in the form of protectionist purchasing policies or, preferably, investment in local manufacturers to allow them to compete with foreign generic drugmakers, particularly from India and China. BMI urges investment rather than protectionism because, while import bans on certain drugs have allowed some companies to limp on, it has left citizens paying some of the highest prices in the world for essential generic medicines.
- In July 2011, CAPS Holdings, a Zimbabwean company with subsidiaries in all verticals of healthcare delivery in the country, announced it is to delist from the Zimbabwean stock exchange. Shareholders passed a vote to delist by 77.2% to 22.8% and CAPS will cease trading on September 30 2011.
- In August 2011, BMI revised its 2010 growth estimate downwards as a result of new historic trade data. BMI calculates that pharmaceutical expenditure reached US$142mn in 2010, achieving y-o-y growth of 4.2% in US dollar term s.
- The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Country Report (Number 11/135) on Zimbabwe, published in June 2011, detailed the need to scale up government expenditure on education and healthcare. The bank has recently carried out a broad review of financing needs of the education, health and social protection sectors. During 2011, the bank has been implementing a results based financing programme for maternal and child health and a public works rapid social response programme.
BMI Economic View: Price growth in Zimbabwe is benign and BMI believes that this will continue to be the case while liquidity remains tight and food supplies relatively plentiful. That said, if the finance ministry succumbs to pressure to raise wages, or if the local currency is resurrected, inflationary pressures could quickly build. Price growth could also be stoked by inclement weather disrupting domestic or regional food production.
Although positive company results are an indication that the Zimbabwean economy is recovering, BMI believes that concerns over the political environment mean that the recovery is slow and the economy might not reach its potential. BMI believes the economy will grow by 7.1% in 2011 and 7.4% in 2012.
BMI Political View: Zimbabwe's perennially simmering political environment appears to be on the brink of boiling over once again. The Southern African Development Community is continuing to put pressure on President Robert Mugabe and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai is becoming increasingly confrontational and defiant. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
Zimbabwe Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
Zimbabwe Political SWOT
Zimbabwe Economic SWOT
Zimbabwe Business Environment SWOT
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings For Q411
Zimbabwe - Market Summary
Intellectual Property Developments
Pricing And Reimbursement Issues
Public Drug Procurement
Recent Healthcare Sector Developments
Biotechnology Sector Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Overall Market Forecasts
Table: Zimbabwe’s Pharmaceutical Market Forecast, 2008-2015
Key Growth Factors - Industry
Table: Zimbabwe’s Healthcare Expenditure Forecast, 2008-2015
Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic
Table: Zimbabwe - Economic Activity
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
Table: Zimbabwe’s Prescription Drug Market Forecast, 2008-2015
Patented Drug Market Forecast
Table: Zimbabwe’s Patented Drug Market Forecast, 2008-2015
Generic Drug Market Forecast
Table: Zimbabwe’s Generic Drug Market Forecast, 2008-2015
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
Table: Zimbabwe’s OTC Medicine Market Forecast, 2008-2015
Table: Zimbabwe’s Medical Device Market Forecast, 2008-2015
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
Table: Zimbabwe’s Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast, 2008-2015
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI Forecasts
Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry
Recent Pharmaceutical Sector Developments
Table: ARV Prices Available Through Direct Purchase From Roche (CHF)
Retail Pharmacy Sector
Country Snapshot: Zimbabwe Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2000-2003
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 1997 And 1999*
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 1996-2002
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Components
- Varichem Laboratories
- CAPS Holdings