|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Greece Agribusiness Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 60
Greece Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Greece's agribusiness service.
The Greek economy remains mired in recession, having shrunk once again in Q211. According to the Hellenic Statistical Economy, gross domestic product fell by 6.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) during the second quarter, primarily as a result of extremely weak domestic demand. The government's austerity package - agreed upon in June 2011 - is set to implement a raft of tax hikes and spending cuts.
Indeed, government spending is already down by 40% y-o-y in H111 in an effort to cut the country's financial deficit. The poor investment climate, reduction in governmental spending and low domestic demand all spell tough times for Greece's agricultural producers. Export opportunities for some sectors represent the primary driver to boost growth, with an improvement in Greece's trade deficit in Q211 a welcome boost in an otherwise bleak economic landscape.
Key Forecasts
- The Greek economy is forecast to contract by 3.1% y-o-y in 2011 before returning to growth of 0.9% y-o-y in 2012. Risks are to the downside, however, as the economy remains precarious.
- We expect Greek sugar production to increase by 26.4% y-o-y in 2010/11 to 962,500 tonnes. However, production will remain a long way short of the 1.6mn tonnes harvested in the 2008/09 season. Over the forecast period to 2014/15, we expect production growth of 42.1%, seeing output increase to 1.08mn tonnes.
- We forecast that poultry production will remain stable in 2010/11, at 1.70mn tonnes. Demand is also forecast to hold at a stable 2.21mn tonnes per year as consumers turn to chicken as a more affordable and healthier alternative to red meat. Out to 2015, poultry production is forecast to grow by 3.6% on the 2010 level, while we see consumption expanding by 6.0%.
- Cheese production is forecast to grow by a marginal 0.3% y-o-y in 2010/11 to reach 209,500 tonnes. Over the forecast period to 2015, we see production increasing by 7.0% to 223,500 tonnes. Production of butter in Greece is moderate, and we forecast that output will remain at 1,500 tonnes in 2011. Out to 2015, we see production remaining steady.
Key Trends And Developments
Despite Greece's troubled investment climate, in June poultry firm Amvrosiadis unveiled investment in a new SmartPro hatchery installation from Pas Reforma capable of producing 250,000 chicks per week immediately and 300,000 chicks per week in the longer term. The investment consolidates Amvrosiadis' position as one of Greece's leading poultry integrations.
On the domestic front, high levels of competition and market maturity have put a dampener on dairy profits. The Greek dairy sector is, however, booming on the international market with demand for GreekGreece style yoghurt, feta cheese and other Greek dairy specialities increasing rapidly. In June, it was announced that the Union of Agricultural Cooperatives of Rethymno (E.A.S. Rethymnis) in collaboration with Arabic food companies, would begin to promote Cretian cheese and white cheese in brine throughout Saudi Arabia. In July, Greek dairy manufacturer Olympus opened a new EUR55mn, 25,000square metre dairy plant in Halciu, Romania. The plant will process milk, cheese and yoghurt for sale in Romania and also export to the US and Europe.
Greek unemployment levels continue to climb, with 15.8% of the population out of work in April 2011, including 43.1% of young people aged 15-24. The spiralling levels of unemployment have seen some 38,000 workers return to the farming and fishing industries, according to Greek farmers' union PASGEGES. This represents a reversal in the trend for workers to abandon the agricultural sector.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
