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Bulgaria Shipping Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 86
Bulgaria Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bulgaria's shipping industry.
Total tonnage at the port of Varna is set to continue increasing over the mid term with the port already fully recovered from the drop in volumes in 2009. The port's container throughput is however not fairing so well, with a y-o-y increase of just 5.3% projected for 2011. While this is growth on top of growth, with the port's throughput growing by 5.4% in 2010 it is not enough for the port to recover from the 27.5% decline in box volumes, which the port posted in 2009.
Over the mid term growth in box volumes is set to remain steady but worrying is unlikely to reach predownturn levels. In 2008 the port of Varna handled 155,326TEU our 2015 projection is just short of this at 151,322TEU.
This steady but uninspiring growth outlook for box throughput at the port further highlights in BMI's view the question mark over the need of a new container terminal at the port. A BGN640mn loan was negotiated in 2008 with the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) for the construction of two new container terminals at the port of Varna and the port of Burgas. The decline in trade volumes in 2009 lead BMI to question the need for an expanded facility, as domestic demand was down and Varna, unlike the neighbouring port of Constantza in Romania does not play a transhipment role. Earlier in 2011 the Bulgarian cabinet started talks with the JICA on annulling the loan, a wise decision in BMI's view
Headline Industry Data
- 2011 port of Varna tonnage throughput forecast to grow 2.29%, over the mid-term we project a 17.4% increase.
- 2011 port of Varna container throughput forecast to grow 5.32%, over the mid-term we project a 27.5% increase.
- 2011 total trade growth forecast at 6.47%.
Key Industry Trends
Aiming To Annul The Loan: Bulgaria's Cabinet is seeking to annul the BGN640loan, which the country won from the JICA in 2008 to develop two new container terminals at the ports of Varna and Burgas. Following the decline the need for such capacity has been question, Bulgaria also has firsthand experience of accepting a loan only to have cargo volumes dry up. A Japanese development loan funded the construction of a new dry bulk terminal at the port of Burgas, but it was mothballed when the steel plant it was due to cater for went into liquidation.
2A To Be De-Mothballed: There is however good news for the new for the dry bulk terminal at Burgas. The Bulgarian shipping company Navibulgar has won the 35-year concession to operate the facility. The terminal will compliment Navibulgar's operations, as it is dry bulk shipping firm
Risks To Outlook
The upward revision of Bulgaria's GDP forecast by our Country Risk team highlights the brighter economic environment in the country, a factor which will filter down to the nation's ports. BMI is however wary that the country's main export partners are EU based and with the demand picture in the eurozone still uncertain a slowdown in demand would have a negative impact on throughput at the nation's ports.
The previously projected upside risk to forecasts with the planned new container terminals at the nation's ports now appears unlikely as the Bulgarian Cabinet is trying to annul the loan, with the container capacity expansion deemed unnecessary.
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