China Tourism Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, September 2011, Pages: 65
China Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on China's tourism industry.
Slower Than Expected H111 Total arrivals to China grew by a slower than expected amount in H111, reaching 66.3mn according to figures released by the China National Tourism Administration (CNTA). This represented growth of 1.15% year-on-year (y-o-y), below the 6.3% growth level seen in full-year 2010. In part, this reflects the traditional cycle of the tourism sector, with arrivals picking up towards the end of the year. However, it is certainly a concern that international arrivals have slowed, which may reflect slowing growth prospects for North American and EU economies.
By contrast, domestic tourism is continuing to perform strongly, with CNTA finding that domestic tourist arrivals rose by 12% in the first half of the year, to 1.4bn. While this does not entirely compensate for the slowdown in foreign arrivals, it provides the sector with some welcome insulation from global market fluctuations. We still expect growth to surpass that of 2010, although we have reduced our 2011 arrivals forecast slightly to 142.7mn, representing 6.0% growth.
Independent Tourism To Taiwan Begins In June 2011, tourism relations between China and Taiwan have improved further as China allowed its citizens to travel independently to Taiwan for the first time. The two states agreed two-way visitor traffic in 2008, after which a set quota of Chinese tours were allowed to visit Taiwan. However, Chinese tourists can now visit Taiwan without registering on a tour, with potentially positive benefits for Taiwan’s tourist industry. At present, independent visitors are limited to 500 per day and only from Beijing, Xiamen and Shanghai. Should the trial scheme prove a success, this quota could be increased.
Air China Launches New Subsidiary In a mark of China’s expanding domestic market, national carrier Air China launched a new subsidiary based in the north eastern city of Dalian. Named Dalian Airlines, the new carrier is owned 80% by Air China and 20% by the Dalian government. Dalian Airlines will operate flights to major Chinese cities such as Beijing, Shenzhen and Shanghai, and plans to launch flights to Japan and South Korea in 2012 if it picks up sufficient air traffic in its first year of operation.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
China Tourism SWOT
China Political SWOT
China Economic SWOT
China Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Arrivals
Table: Arrivals Data, 2008-2015
Accommodation
Table: Accommodation Data, 2008-2015 (‘000, unless stated)
Expenditure
Table: Tourist Expenditure & Economic Impact, 2008-2015
Inbound Tourism
Table: Tourists Arrivals, 2008-2015
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2008-2015
Market Overview – Travel
Airlines
State-Owned Airlines
Private Airlines
Cruises
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, 2011 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2011-2015 (US$/bbl)
Market Overview – Hospitality
Hotels
Special Focus: Budget Hotels
Risks To Accommodation Forecast Scenario
Gaming
H5N1 And H1N1 Virus Update
Business Environment Outlook
Table: Asia Pacific Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
China’s Security Risk Ratings
City Terrorism Ratings
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index
North East Asia Security Overview
The Geopolitical Importance Of North East Asia
Flashpoints And Fault-lines In North East Asia
Global Assumptions, Q411
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y)
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average)
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average)
Developed States
Table: Developed States’ Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y)
Emerging Markets
Table: Emerging Markets’ Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y)
Company Profiles
Air China
Melco International Development
Shangri-La Asia
Jinjiang International Holdings
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings – Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Components
City Terrorism Ratings
Table: City Terrorism Ratings Methodology
Sources
- Air China
- Melco International Development
- Shangri-La Asia
- Jinjiang International Holdings
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