|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Australia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 118
Business Monitor International's Australia Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Australia's oil and gas industry.
The latest Australia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.29% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 7.07% of supply. Regional oil use of 26.07mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010 is forecast to rise to around 30.22mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 7.92mn b/d 2010. It is set to decrease to 7.88mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2010, the region was importing an average 18.15mn b/d. This total rises to an estimated 22.34mn b/d in 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region consumed around 513.3bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 664.9bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of 406.0bcm in 2010 should reach 556.7bcm in 2015, implying net imports falling from around 112.3bcm to 111.8bcm. Australia’s share of gas consumption in 2015 is put at5.52%, while its share of production is estimated at 17.96%.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the eurozone should be marginally higher than 2010, while US and Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will be negative, reflecting the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. BMIs oil price assumption for 2011 is US$101.90 per barrel (bbl) for the OPEC basket, falling to US$97.50/bbl in 2012.
Australian real GDP is forecast by BMI to increase by an estimated 2.39% in 2011. BMI are now predicting average annual GDP growth of 2.75% between 2011 and 2015. There is no state oil industry, but domestic and leading international companies are investing heavily in gas production and LNG exports to help offset declining oil output. BMI are assuming oil and gas liquids production peaking at about 620,000b/d in 2013 then falling to about 580,000b/d by 2017. Consumption is forecast to increase by about 1% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 993,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be about 437,000b/d by 2015.
Between 2011 and 2020, BMI are forecasting a decrease in Australian oil production of 36.2%, with crude volumes peaking in 2013 at 620,000b/d, before falling steadily to 366,840b/d by the end of the period. Oil consumption between 2011 and 2020 is set to increase by 7.43%, with growth of less than 1% per annum throughout the period and the country using 1.04mn b/d by 2020. While oil output is expected to decline, gas production is expected to rise rapidly, from an estimated 50bcm in 2010 to a possible 122bcm by 2020. Demand is also expected to rise rapidly as gas plays an increasingly important role in the overall energy picture, with 10-year demand growth expected to be 29.9%. Production growth will far outpace demand growth, however, and BMI see export potential rising from an estimated 18.1bcm in 2010 to nearly 80bcm by 2020, all in the form of LNG. Details of BMI’s long-term oil and gas outlook can be found at the end of this report, including regional and country-specific forecasts to 2020.
Australia is still at the top of BMI’s composite Risk/Reward ratings table, thanks to its leading position in the updated upstream rating that reflects its balance of strong gas production/export potential, world-class regulatory structure and solid risk environment. While still getting a good score, Australia is further down the league table in BMI’s downstream ratings, reflecting its status as a mature, deregulated and competitive energy market with limited growth potential. It holds joint fourth place out of the 15 states. It could slip further down the rankings as country risk improves elsewhere in the region.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
