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Cameroon Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 70
Business Monitor International's Cameroon Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Cameroon's oil and gas industry.
The latest Cameroon Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 0.94% of African regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 0.68% of supply. African regional oil use is put by BMI at 3.61mn b/d in 2010. It should average 3.59mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around 4.10mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 10.74mn b/d in n 2010. After dropping to an estimated 9.66mn b/d in 2011 because of the loss of Libyan volumes, it is set to rise to 12.91mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging behind the pace of supply expansion. This total rose to 7.13mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 8.80mn b/d by 2015. Nigeria has the greatest production growth potential, with Angolan exports also set to climb significantly.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed 124.1bcm, with demand of 165.2bcm forecast for 2015. Production of 213.7bcm in 2010 should reach 300.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from 89.5bcm to 134.9bcm in 2015. In 2011, Cameroon will have consumed an estimated 0.06% of the region’s gas, with its market share forecast at 0.16% by 2015. It will have contributed an estimated 0.04% to 2011 regional gas production and by 2015 will account for 0.09% of supply.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.6%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in both the US and Eurozone should be marginally higher than last year, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will be 1.65%, reflecting the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. BMIs oil price assumption for 2011 is US$101.90/bbl for the OPEC basket, falling to US$97.50/bbl in 2012.
Cameroon’s real GDP is forecast to rise by 2.85% in 2011 and BMI assumes average annual growth of 4.29% from 2011 to 2015. BMI expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 30,000b/d in 2011 to 39,000b/d in 2015. State oil company Société Nationale des Hydrocarbures (SNH) operates in partnership with a small group of international oil companies (IOCs). It is also responsible for selling the government’s share of oil output and holds a 20% stake in projects operated by Total, Pecten and Perenco. Thanks to IOC investment, combined oil and gas liquids output of around 64,000b/d in 2011 is expected to peak at 88,000b/d in 2015. Gas production is expected to rise rapidly over the longer term, potentially providing the basis for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by 2016.
Between 2011 and 2020, BMI forecast an increase in Cameroon’s oil and gas liquids production of 24.1%, with volumes peaking at an estimated 88,000b/d in 2015 before slipping to 80,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2011 and 2020 is set to increase by 63.3%, with growth slowing to an assumed 5% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 49,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise to 5.0bcm by the end of the period. BMI expect Cameroon to export about 4.6bcm of gas by 2020 in the form of LNG. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Cameroon is now ranked ninth in BMI’s composite Risk/Reward Ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. The country also occupies ninth place in the updated upstream ratings. The county’s score benefits from reasonable gas output growth prospects, a very healthy gas reserves to production ratio (RPR) and attractive licensing terms. Cameroon is near the bottom of the league table in BMI’s updated downstream ratings, sharing seventh place with Ghana, Angola and Sudan, with few high scores and immediate progress unlikely. Low scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand and the absence of competition in the downstream segment restrict its potential.
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