|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Hungary Infrastructure Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 68
Business Monitor International's Hungary Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, infrastructure associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hungary's infrastructure industry.
The latest figures from Hungary's statistics agency paint a bleak picture of the construction sector with Q1 2011 figures weaker than those recorded in Q1 2010. As a result it is probable that forecasts may be revised further as new data becomes available in 2011. At present the industry is forecast to stand at US$5.1bn in 2011 rising only slightly over the forecast period to reach US$6.1bn by 2015. Low growth rates will characterise the industry up until 2020 with projected average year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of just 2.09% over the next decade.
Key issues this quarter included:
- A consortium led by German construction firm Hochtief has agreed to buy a 25% stake in Hungarian airport operator Budapest Airport for an estimated US$200mn. The stake is the last to be sold by the Hungarian government and will add to Hochtief's existing 75% stake in the operator. Budapest Airport runs the Budapest Liszt Ferenc Airport.
- Production volumes in Hungary's construction sector dipped by 5.6% month-on-month (m-o-m) in June, according to seasonally adjusted figures, the Central Statistics Office (KSH) has reported on Monday. Production was down 13.9% y-o-y, according to both unadjusted figures and data adjusted for working days. The sector's output was 9.6% smaller in January-June that in the first half of 2010.
- In July 2011, the Nabucco Pipeline gained the second environmental permit necessary for the Hungarian section, according to Penn Energy. The remaining two permits are expected to be granted in Q3 2011.
BMI has revised up the 2011 growth forecast for the Hungarian economy to 2.9% from a previous projection of 2.3% – given firming demand in Germany and the strong trade linkages between the two countries. However, while we expect export-oriented industries to continue to do well over the coming quarters, household consumption is unlikely to enjoy a strong recovery until 2012 (when we see headline growth rising to 3.1%), given the still-sizeable headwinds facing the sector.
Hungary's ruling Fidesz party passed a new constitution through parliament in April 2011 which opposition parties claimed was yet a further attempt at power consolidation. While the new legislation has the potential to worsen relations between Hungary and the EU and provoke further protests from opposition groups at home, BMI believes that Fidesz's still-robust popularity will preclude a major shift in the administration's policy stance in the foreseeable future.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
