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Hungary Telecommunications Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 118
Business Monitor International's Hungary Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hungary's telecommunications industry.
The Q411 update to the Hungary telecoms market report contains new operator data from Telenor and Deutsche Telekom-owned T-Mobile, and Vodafone Hungary covering the period to the end of June 2011. In addition, the fixed-line and broadband sections of the report includes data covering fixed-voice, fixed and mobile broadband and pay-TV reported by Magyar Telekom, Liberty Global owned UPC and the regulator NHH covering the period until end-June 2011. As a result of this updated data, this report contains revisions to BMI's forecasts for the broadband sector, as well as the mobile segments. The report also contains an update to the monthly blended ARPU forecasts through to 2015 for all three operators.
In the previous update BMI reported that the government's announcement that the crisis tax impacting telecoms operators would be abolished after 2012 introduced certainty and therefore reduced the negative impact on the development of the market. Further, there has been little impact on the levels of investment by operators, reinforcing BMI's view that the tax had a limited impact on the development trajectory of the wider market. However, in financial terms it continues to affect operator performance. Magyar Telekom, as the incumbent and wealthiest operator, is expected to account for nearly half the additional HUF61bn between 2010 and 2012. Smaller firms such as the cable operator UPC, owned by Liberty Global, have also been hit by the tax. These large sums have reduced financial performance.
The Hungarian mobile market experienced a mixed H111, with declining subscriber numbers, but an improving subscriber mix. The market leader T-Mobile reported a subscriber loss of 431,000 in Q111, with the majority of the losses occurring in the postpaid segment. The higher value of the postpaid segment makes this particularly damaging for the operator. However, T-Mobile's parent company says in its results that the loss is related to a restating of figures and this time excludes business customers. This explains the postpaid losses. This is an issue BMI plans to watch closely in the coming quarters to determine the impact on the market. Further, besides T-Mobile's one-off subscriber losses, the other operators reported limited subscriber losses in H111 as they continued to lose prepaid subscribers, while postpaid subscriber bases increased. This is a mixed trend as it improves subscriber mixes but reduces total subscribers.
The most recent results reported by operators has also shown a slight slowdown in the fixed and mobile broadband markets. This resulted in us restating BMI's forecasts for the broadband sector and downgrading them slightly, but still expect robust growth. In the other segments, BMI forecasts a deceleration in the rate of decline in the fixed-line voice sector as intransigent fixed-line customers are hesitant to upgrade technologies. BMI downgraded BMI's mobile forecasts based on the restated subscriber figures from T-Mobile. However, this left forecast growth rates unchanged.
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