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Indonesia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 99
Business Monitor International's Indonesia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Indonesia's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
BMI View: A strong economy is expected to drive double-digit annual growth in pharmaceutical sales in Indonesia over our five-year forecast period. Multinationals are increasingly viewing the market as an attractive investment as economic and demographic factors move drug consumption up the value chain. Furthermore, the domestic pharmaceutical industry is looking to expand production and R&D capacity to capitalise on the opportunity.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: IDR36,332bn (US$4.00bn) in 2010 to IDR40,191bn (US$4.57bn) in 2011; +10.6% growth in local currency terms and +14.2% in US dollar terms. BMI's forecast has been revised down moderately from Q311 due to macroeconomic factors.
- Healthcare: IDR127,569bn (US$14.05bn) in 2010 to IDR140,143bn (US$15.93bn) in 2011; +9.9% growth in local currency terms and +13.4% in US dollar terms. BMI'sforecast has been revised down from Q311 due to macroeconomic factors.
- Medical devices: IDR2,758bn (US$304mn) in 2010 to IDR3,026bn (US$344mn) in 2011; +9.7% growth in local currency terms and +13.3% in US dollar terms. BMI'sforecast has been revised down slightly from Q311 due to macroeconomic factors.
Business Environment Rating: BMI's
Key Trends And Developments
- In July 2011, the US provided Indonesia with a US$1.1mn research grant through a new USAID project – Partnerships to Enhance Engagement in Research. The funding will be made available to Indonesian scientists participating in the US National Science Foundation research projects with US scientists in order to forge more scientific collaborations between the two countries. The funding is likely to be invested in biodiversity-related projects.
- In August 2011, Kalbe Farma announced plans to build a generic drugs factory in line with its aim to increase production capacity by 30-50%. The building plan is subject to certification from the Food and Drug Monitoring Agency.
BMI Economic View: Indonesia registered robust real GDP growth of 6.5% y-o-y in Q111. This figure is highly impressive considering the high base effects in Q110 and underscores BMI's view that domestic demand (in particular, investment-led demand) will drive the economy strongly in 2011. BMI continues to hold a sanguine outlook for the economy, noting that food and energy prices may moderate in the coming months, providing a boost to the domestic consumer. Meanwhile, given the strong Q111 print, BMI also cautions upside risks to BMI 5.9% and 5.8% real GDP growth forecast for 2011 and 2012 respectively.
BMI Political View: A survey by the Indonesian Survey Circle also shows that President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's job approval rating fell to a new low of 47% in June 2011, owing to his failure to pass certain legislation and ill feeling over allegations surrounding his Democratic Party. This decline in popularity will make it increasingly difficult for the president to implement much-needed fuel subsidy reforms, which are needed to free up funds for infrastructure development.
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