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Iran Freight Transport Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 40
Business Monitor International's Iran Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, freight transportation associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Iran's freight transportation industry.
Iran's freight transport sector, and the country's trade as a whole, continues to be hit by Western sanctions aimed at halting the state's alleged nuclear weapons development programme. It seems certain that the country's maritime industry's impressive growth in the face of international sanctions will weaken in Q411 as Western sanctions continue to target it. The latest blow is the addition of ports operator Tidewater to the list, which will result in a drop in the number of services calling at Bandar Abbas. The country's shipping companies also continue to be in the firing line. Whether Iran's planned 'economic jihad' of investment in the sector will negate these downward pressures remains to be seen. The air freight sector is also suffering, with IranAir Cargo reeling from the blows.
Headline Industry Data
- 2011 port of Bandar Abbas throughput growth forecast is 1.4%, and is expected to average 2.72% a year to 2015.
- 2011 rail freight tonnes growth forecast is 0.9%, and is expected to average 1.68% a year to 2015.
- 2011 air freight tonnes growth forecast is 0.37%, and is expected to average 0.70% a year to 2015.
- 2011 total trade real growth forecast is 0.11%.
Key Industry Trends
- Iran's Transit Network Set For Rapid Expansion Iran's head of road maintenance and transportation organisation, Shahriar Afandizadeh, was quoted as saying in May 2011 that the country's road transit network will be extended by some 6,000km by the end of this Iranian calendar year in March 2012. BMI notes that the Middle Eastern country is well-placed to establish itself as a transit corridor for its landlocked Central Asian neighbours, and is also developing its rail network in order to fulfil this role.
- Iran Wages 'Economic Jihad' To Boost Marine Security The Iranian maritime sector has big development plans for the current Iranian year, which runs to March 2012, with 103 projects in the pipeline. These include 89 infrastructure development projects and 14 equipment projects. BMI notes that throughput at the country's ports has continued to show remarkable growth in the face of US-led sanctions, and that these works will help this, though with sanctions intensifying all the time we wonder for how long the growth can continue.
- IranAir Cargo Hits Out Against US Sanctions BMI has previously analysed the implications of the US-led sanctions against the Iranian shipping sector, and what they mean for companies such as IRISL. A new round of US sanctions, however, designed to halt Iran's alleged nuclear weapons programme looks set to hit the Iranian airfreight sector, specifically the national flag carrier and its cargo subsidiary.
Key Risks To Outlook
The sanctions imposed on Iran provide considerable risk to our forecasts. With the nuclear-energy development programme, which the Iranians insist is not for the development of weapons, elevated to the status of a national cause, it seems unlikely that it will be dropped anytime soon. It has long been known that Tehran's intention is to become a political and military powerhouse in the Gulf, a situation that has proved unnerving to its regional neighbours. That several Middle Eastern states have been actively calling for military action against Iran's nuclear facilities, despite the massive risks to regional stability that this would pose, clearly highlights their concern surrounding the possibility of a nuclear-armed Tehran in the region.
The addition of Tidewater, and the company's ports, to the boycotted list, will have massive ramifications for the port of Bandar Abbas, and will halt the double-digit growth the facility has enjoyed in recent months.
Equally, as Iran is so reliant on the export of its oil to feed its economy, any fluctuation in the price of fossil fuels could provide risk to our projections.
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