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Poland Food and Drink Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 110
Poland was the only European economy to escape recession in 2009, and this had much to do with the consumer. Fast-forwarding to 2011 and with global headwinds building, we continue to look favourably on Poland. While spending at the household level has stagnated or retracted in most European economies, this has not been the case in Poland. Some indicators, such as loans to consumers and households as well as retail sales, continue to show strength.
Headline Industry Data
- 2011 per capita food consumption growth in local currency = 5.98%; forecast compound annual growth to 2015 = 5.80%.
- 2011 beer volume sales = 4.20%; forecast compound annual growth to 2015 = 3.80%.
- 2011 mass grocery retail sales growth = 9.39%; forecast compound annual growth to 2015 = 8.90%.
Key Industry Trends
Walmart Looking At Poland?: With Walmart’s same-store sales showing poor numbers in the US, the world’s largest retailer is increasingly looking abroad for new opportunities. Poland is frequently mentioned as Walmart’s next market. While fast-growing discounter Biedronka, owned by Portuguese retailer Jerónimo Martins, might seem one of the more obvious targets for a company like Walmart, we think the firm would look elsewhere. As we saw recently with Walmart assuming part-ownership of South African retailer Massmart, the firm prefers to acquire companies with attractive business models that it can grow strongly organically rather than focusing on the biggest player.
Positive Economic Signs: BMI has had a very constructive view on Polish retail for quite some time. From a macroeconomic view, the country has performed positively over the past few years, having avoided the kind of cataclysmic downturn in consumer spending that hit so much of emerging Europe in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. This has been good news for the retail sector, with the growth trends evident before the economic downturn not overly affected. Helping this are Polish consumers keen on discount stores.
Portuguese Retailer Outperforms in Poland: A discussion about Poland, retail and growth takes us to Portugal first, where the owner of Poland’s lead discounter Biedronka is based. Jerónimo Martins bought Biedronka in 1997 in what can now only be described as a master stroke. If Jerónimo Martins has managed to thoroughly outperform Portugal’s PSI20 index (of which it makes up 12.2%) over the course of 2011, then this is thanks largely to Poland. Poland has been the clear focus for Jerónimo Martins, with its contribution to overall sales gazumping Portugal’s over the past few years.
Business Monitor International's Poland Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's food and drink industry.
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