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NAND Insights Q3/11 - Proceed with Caution

Forward Insights, Sep 2011, Pages: 27


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Low consumer confidence and stubborn unemployment figures in the U.S. and debt issues in the Euro zone are creating uncertainty despite continued growth in smartphones, tablets and SSDs. NAND flash manufacturers will need to remain vigilant over deteriorating economic conditions and adjust investments accordingly.

Key Topics:

- Q3/11 vs. Q2/11 update
- U.S. CCI & GDP Growth
- NAND Flash Forecast
- Capex
- Wafer Capacity
- Vendor Status
- Roadmap
- Technology Mix
- Product Mix
- Architecture Mix
- 3bpc by Application
- Demand: Smartphones, Tablets, SSDs, eMMC
- Supply-Demand
- Pricing
- Cost
- Cost
- Summary

Q3/11 vs. Q2/11 Forecast - Upward and Downward Influences on Supply & Demand

Demand
- Upward: Tablet units due to better than forecasted iPad demand
- Upward: Long-term outlook for SSDs increased due to addition of PC flash cache/hybrid dual drive SSDs
- Downward: Removable storage and consumer products - lower units and slowing capacity growth

Supply
- Downward: 3bpc output due to Hynix and Intel exiting market
- Downward: NAND to LSI conversion
- Downward: Reduced capex (capital expenditure) due to economic uncertainty

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