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Ghana Telecommunications Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 100
Business Monitor International's (BMI) Ghana Telecommunications Report (Q4 2011) provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Ghana's telecommunications industry.
BMI's Q411 update on Ghana's telecoms market contains revised forecast figures for the country's mobile telephony, broadband and internet sectors. The forecast is based on June 2011 data as published by Ghana's telecoms regulator, the National Communications Authority (NCA), as well as half- year data published by leading mobile network operators, including MTN Ghana, part of South Africa's MTN Group, Vodafone of the UK and Tigo Ghana, owned by Luxembourg's Millicom International Cellular. The report also contains an ARPU forecast for the mobile sector based on the weighted average of available ARPU data published by the operators.
The major developments in the Ghanaian telecoms sector as contained in this quarter's update include the extension of the deadline for the completion of mandatory SIM card registration by 90 days from the original date of June 30 2011, and the implementation of mobile number portability (MNP) on July 7 2011. Both developments were expected to temper subscriber growth during 2011 and the remainder of BMI’s forecast period through to 2015. However, intensive market and promotional activities by operators in the run-up to the original deadline for SIM registration resulted in better than expected subscriber growth during H111.
According to the NCA, there were net additions of 1.763mn subscribers in H111, bringing the total subscriber base to 19.199mn and mobile penetration to 77.4% by June 30 2011. About 1.208mn subscribers or 68.5% of H111 net additions were in Q211, supporting BMI’s view of the impact of promotional activities before the original deadline of SIM registration on subscriber net additions. MTN and Vodafone accounted for 87.6% of net additions during H111. Considering the rapid subscriber growth during H111 and the strong likelihood of a repeat in H211 as operators prepare for a new deadline to be announced by the regulator, BMI revised its subscriber growth expectations for 2011 and 2012. The authors expect the market to have about 20.835 mobile subscribers by the end of 2011, reflecting a penetration rate of 84%, and growth to slow down into single digits in the latter part of the forecast period, with mobile penetration to reach 95.7% by 2015.
Meanwhile, MNP seems to have taken off in Ghana. According to the NCA, 21,059 subscribers ported their numbers to other mobile operators by July 31 2011 following the launch of the MNP service on July 7. Third-ranked Vodafone claimed as many as 43% of ported numbers switched to its network during that period. BMI welcomes the implementation of MNP considering its positive impact on competition in the mobile market and the choice operators have over changing service providers. However, the authors believe its long-term impact on market dynamics will be limited as the majority of net additions are through new subscriber acquisitions.
BMI revised down its fixed line forecast this quarter to reflect the continued fluctuation in the fixed-line subscriber base. It forecasts slower growth in the fixed-line sector over the next five years, with market penetration reaching 1.3% by 2015. There is no new data on the broadband and internet sector, therefore BMI’s forecast for that sector is unchanged this quarter. The authors maintain their view that wireless access technologies as well as the increase in international bandwidth from submarine cables, will be major growth drivers of internet penetration in Ghana.
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