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Hong Kong Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 55
Business Monitor International's (BMI) Hong Kong Oil and Gas Report (Q4 2011) provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hong Kong's oil and gas industry.
The latest Hong Kong Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.49% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015. Regional oil use of 26.07mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010 is forecast to rise to around 30.22mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 7.92mn b/d in 2010. It is set to decrease to 7.88mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2010, the region was importing an average 18.15mn b/d. This total rises to an estimated 22.34mn b/d in 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region consumed around 513.3bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 664.9bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of 406.0bcm in 2010 should reach 556.7bcm in 2015, implying net imports falling from around 112.3bcm to 111.8bcm. Hong Kong’s share of gas consumption in 2015 is put at 0.63%.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the Eurozone should be marginally higher than 2010, while US and Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will be negative, reflecting the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. BMI’s oil price assumption for 2011 is US$101.90 per barrel (bbl) for the OPEC basket, falling to US$97.50/bbl in 2012.
Hong Kong’s real GDP is forecast by BMI to rise by 5.0% in 2011, with average annual growth of 3.9% forecast for 2011-2015. There is no upstream or refining segment, but international oil companies (IOCs) and Chinese companies are investing in import and distribution facilities. Oil consumption is forecast to increase by 2-3% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 451,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas demand is set to reach 4.2bcm by 2015, with all of the fuel imported.
Between 2011 and 2020, BMI is forecasting an increase in Hong Kong oil consumption of 38.0%, with demand reaching 539,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Oil consumption growth slows to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period. Gas demand growth of 37.6% provides an import requirement rising to 5.0bcm by 2020. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found at the end of the report.
Hong Kong takes 14th place, above only Taiwan, in BMI’s composite Risk/Reward Ratings league table and is ranked equal 13th in the updated upstream ratings, alongside Singapore. The poor showing reflects the absence of domestic hydrocarbons. The risk environment is much more attractive than for many Asian peers, but there are no opportunities for IOCs in the upstream segment. Hong Kong is ranked 12th, behind Pakistan, in BMI’s downstream ratings, above only Vietnam, Taiwan and PNG, reflecting its status as a very small energy market with few investment opportunities available. It beats its nearest rivals because of its low risk profile.
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