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Hong Kong Shipping Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 97
Business Monitor International's (BMI) Hong Kong Shipping Report (Q4 2011) provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hong Kong's shipping industry.
The port of Hong Kong holds the top position in Hong Kong's maritime sector in terms of both total tonnage and container throughput and is set to demonstrate further growth in 2011 after a strong recovery took place in 2010.
However, as BMI noted earlier, it seems certain that the special administrative region is hugely dependent on trade from the mainland. As industry continues to move further inland and mainland ports are further developed, Hong Kong will struggle to maintain its position as a hub.
Over the mid-term BMI projects further but more moderate growth at the port of Hong Kong.
Headline Industry Data
- 2011 port of Hong Kong tonnage throughput forecast to grow 6%, over the mid-term BMI projects a 19% increase.
- 2011 port of Hong Kong container throughput forecast to grow 3%, over the mid-term BMI projects a 13% increase.
- 2011 total trade growth forecast at 7.95%.
Key Industry Trends
OOCL's Results Hit by Asia-Europe Overcapacity but H211 Looking Up: Hong Kong-based Orient Overseas Container Lines (OOCL)'s H111 net profits are down 86% year-on-year (y-o-y), which is hardly surprising given the decline in box rates on the major routes in 2011. BMI highlights that although H111 has been tough on the Asia-Europe route, rates are now ticking up, offering lines hope for the second half of the year.
While Carriers Sink Into Red, Terminal Operators Remain In Black: As container lines head into the red in H111, global container terminal operators are remaining in profit and are watching box throughput volumes grow. Unlike the 2009 downturn, when both parties recorded losses, the growth in global trade has ensured that terminal operators have remained afloat. Hong Kong's Hutchison Port Holding (HPH) is the latest major global terminal operator to post its H111 results. The company's revenue increased by 11% y-o-y to HKD16.3bn (US$2.1bn), and while operating profit declined 20% y-o-y the operator remained in the black, with a profit of US$462.5mn.
TS Lines Orders New Vessels: Hong Kong-based TS Lines' decision to place new vessel orders denotes a two-pronged expansion strategy. The company has diversified into the transpacific, and an order for four 4,700TEU vessels suggests that the firm is keen to expand on this route in the mid-term. The carrier is, however, balancing its diversification strategy with an expansion on its traditional area of expertise, the intra-Asia route, with the line also set to order more vessels to operate on this route.
Risks to Outlook
The decision by Maersk Line to cut the number of calls it makes at the Port of Hong Kong offers serious downside risk to future throughputs at the port, and could see Hong Kong lose further positions to mainland Chinese facilities.
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