|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Singapore Shipping Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 102
Business Monitor International's Singapore Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Singapore's shipping industry.
After a spectacular recovery in 2010, BMI notes that Singapore's economy is growing more slowly this year and is likely to do so again in 2012. Against a backdrop of a slower-growth world economy, BMI believe Singapore is being affected by weaker manufacturing output in electronics and pharmaceuticals, and slower services growth. On the other side, investment, the construction sector and inward tourism from Asia have all been holding up well. BMI now forecasts 2011 GDP growth of 5.9% (following the spectacular 14.5% expansion experienced in 2010). BMIs outlook for 2012 is for growth to ease off further to 4.4%.
Industry-specific factors also point towards a more muted performance. The main issue here is the problem of overcapacity and weak freight rates on transpacific and Asia-Europe routes. Current attempts by box shipping lines to boost rates, for example by charging a peak-season surcharge (PSS), need to be monitored, but BMI remains cautious about their chances of success.
Headline Industry Data
- Port of Singapore's gross tonnage will rise by 8.7% in 2011, with average annual growth of 4.7% during BMIs forecast period.
- Port of Singapore box handling set to grow a lower 2.6% in 2011, with average annual growth of 3.9% over BMIs forecast period.
- The country's overall trade will grow by 6.3% in real terms this year.
Key Industry Trends
- Hapag-Lloyd Launches Singapore-Indonesia Service - German shipping company Hapag-Lloyd has launched a weekly Singapore-Indonesia service, amid signs that intra-Asian routes remain attractive. Freight rates on these routes are performing firmly, in contrast to the weakness on longer-haul routes such as transpacific or Asia-Europe.
- NOL Issues Bonds To Fund US$1.5bn New Build Plan - Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) said it was issuing US$243mn worth of bonds in June, as part of a plan to raise US$1.5bn for purchases of new container vessels. NOL subsidiary APL has ordered 12 8,400 20-foot equivalent unit (TEU) box ships, with more likely to come. NOL president Ron Widdows said lower ship prices had created an opportunity to 'retool our asset cost'.
- European Commission Begins Antitrust Investigation of Box Lines - The EC raided offices of a number of international container shipping lines, including Singapore's NOL. According to an official statement the 'Commission has reason to believe that the companies concerned may have violated the antitrust rules that prohibit cartels and restrictive business practices and/or the abuse of a dominant position.' BMI notes that any eventual finding of guilt could have a serious impact on the bottom line.
Key Risks to Outlook
In contrast to BMIs view last quarter, when they saw an upside risk from stronger-than-expected intra-Asian trade, they now believe the risk for Singapore's ports and shipping sector lies on the downside, and comes from a worsening global economic performance. Although BMI is already beginning to factor this in, the risk is that the debt troubles of the US and the Eurozone, together with growing nervousness on financial markets, will drive down an already lukewarm GDP performance. As an open, export oriented economy, Singapore is particularly vulnerable to global economic headwinds of this type.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
