Taiwan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, September 2011, Pages: 65
Business Monitor International's Taiwan Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Taiwan's oil and gas industry.
The latest Taiwan Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.91% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015. Regional oil use of 26.07mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010 is forecast to rise to around 30.22mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 7.92mn b/d 2010. It is set to decrease to 7.88mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2010, the region was importing an average 18.15mn b/d. This total rises to an estimated 22.34mn b/d in 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region consumed around 513.3bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 664.9bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of 406.0bcm in 2010 should reach 556.7bcm in 2015, implying net imports falling from around 112.3bcm to 111.8bcm. Taiwan's share of gas consumption in 2015 is put at 2.66%.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the eurozone should be marginally higher than 2010, while US and Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan's growth will be negative, reflecting the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. BMIs oil price assumption for 2011 is US$101.90 per barrel (bbl) for the OPEC basket, falling to US$97.50/bbl in 2012. Taiwanese real GDP in 2011 is forecast by BMI to rise 4.3%, with average annual growth of 4.7% predicted in 2011-2015. State-owned CPC has been given the task of securing oil and gas supply, but has no significant domestic volumes to contribute. Oil consumption is forecast to increase by at least 2% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 1.18mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas usage is expected to rise from the estimated 2011 figure of 15.2bcm to 17.7bcm by 2015, supplied by liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.
Between 2011 and 2020, BMI are forecasting a 25.8% increase in Taiwan's oil consumption from an estimated 1.05mn b/d to 1.32mn b/d, with the country's refining capacity falling from an estimated 1.24mn b/d to 1.02mn b/d. Gas demand is expected to rise from an estimated 15.2bcm in 2011 to a possible 17.7bcm by 2020, met by LNG imports. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found at the end of this report.
Taiwan takes 15th and last place in BMI's composite Risk/Reward Ratings, lagging well behind Hong Kong and Singapore. Taiwan also ranks 15th and last in BMI's updated upstream ratings, thanks to a virtual absence of hydrocarbon resources. The score reflects the total control of the government over upstream oil activities and a healthy country risk profile, the latter offsetting partly the lack of reserves and output growth potential. The country is second-from-last in BMI's downstream ratings, ahead only of Papua New Guinea (PNG). The poor showing reflects its high level of state involvement, relatively high retail site intensity and modest oil and gas demand growth outlook.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Taiwan Political SWOT
Taiwan Economic SWOT
Taiwan Business Environment SWOT
Taiwan Energy Market Overview
Regional Energy Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2008-2015
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) , 2008-2015
Oil: Downstream
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) , 2008-2015
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) , 2008-2015
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) , 2008-2015
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) , 2008-2015
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings
Asia Pacific Region
Composite Scores
Table: Regional Composite Risk/Reward Rating
Upstream Scores
Table: Regional Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
Taiwan Upstream Rating – Overview
Taiwan Upstream Rating – Rewards
Taiwan Upstream Rating – Risks
Downstream Scores
Table: Regional Downstream Risk/Reward Rating
Business Environment
Legal Framework
Infrastructure
Labour Force
Foreign Investment Policy
Tax Regime
Security Risk
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: Taiwan Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts
Other Energy
Table: Taiwan Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts
Key Risks To Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Energy Outlook
Oil and Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Taiwan
Service Stations
Oil Storage
LNG Terminals
Gas Pipelines
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Taiwan - Economic Activity
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players Taiwan Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Government Policy
Table: Key Upstream Player
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
CPC Corporation
Formosa Petrochemical Corporation (FPCC)
NPC – Summary
Royal Dutch Shell – Summary
ExxonMobil – Summary
Others – Summary
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm)
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross Checks
Sources
- CPC Corporation
- Formosa Petrochemical Corporation (FPCC)
- NPC
- Royal Dutch Shell
- ExxonMobile
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