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Thailand Telecommunications Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 109
Business Monitor International's Thailand Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Thailand's telecommunications industry.
This quarter's update to BMI's Thailand Telecommunications Report takes into account the latest (Q211) key performance indicators from two of the largest operators – mobile players AIS and DTAC – and Q111 data from all other operators and the National Telecommunications Commission (NTC). Broadly, the downward trend in the fixed-line segment and expansion in the fixed and mobile broadband markets were in line with expectations and BMI have not needed to adjust our 2011-15 forecasts for these markets. The mobile market is rather more robust than BMI had expected, judging by H111 results, and BMI have slightly raised our five-year outlook accordingly.
BMI also have a better insight into the make-up of the mobile market following True's acquisition of the CDMA wireless business of Hutchison. True has taken the opportunity to create a new wireless group, which encompasses its TrueMove GSM unit, the Hutch CDMA business and a new entity geared towards developing a national 3G platform. This latter goal is to be achieved either with or without stateowned CAT Telecom – which had partnered with Hutchison – though legal action brought by rival DTAC may prematurely end advanced plans to establish joint HSPA services. TOT, meanwhile, is said to be working with AIS to develop 900MHz HSPA 3G services, but that project may also come to naught if the new Thai government decides to rethink the way 3G services are offered in Thailand. This mix of positive demand for the proposed advanced services (smartphone sales are strong at AIS, DTAC and TrueMove) combined with political interference in licensing permeates our mobile market forecast. BMI forecast 91.9mn mobile subscribers by 2015 – a small increase on their previous view – but see little opportunity for 3G connections to also increase.
Efforts by broadband providers such as True and Triple T Broadband, which have aggressively marketed their products in response to buoyant demand for high-speed services, means that BMI expects the Thai broadband market will continue to grow robustly. BMI envisage 3.390mn broadband subscribers by end-2011, and they expect this number to increase to 4.769mn by 2015, representing a penetration rate of 6.8%. Meanwhile, BMI continue to forecast the number of fixed-line subscriber in the country to fall to 6.579mn in 2011 as the fixed-to-mobile service migration accelerates.
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