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Vietnam Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 86
Business Monitor International's Vietnam Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Vietnam's oil and gas industry.
The latest Vietnam Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.35% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 5.02% of supply. Regional oil use of 26.07mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010 is forecast to rise to around 30.22mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 7.92mn b/d 2010. It is set to decrease to 7.88mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2010, the region was importing an average 18.15mn b/d. This total rises to an estimated 22.34mn b/d in 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region consumed around 513.3bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 664.9bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of 406.0bcm in 2010 should reach 556.7bcm in 2015, implying net imports falling from around 112.3bcm to 111.8bcm. Vietnam’s share of gas consumption in 2015 is put at 2.40%, while its share of production is estimated at 3.77%.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the eurozone should be marginally higher than 2010, while US and Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will be negative, reflecting the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price assumption for 2011 is US$101.90 per barrel (bbl) for the OPEC basket, falling to US$97.50/bbl in 2012. Vietnamese real GDP growth in 2011 is forecast by BMI to be 6.3%, with an assumed average annual 7.0% increase in 2011-2015. Exploration success has been on the rise in Vietnam, with a growing number of international oil companies (IOCs) teaming up with PetroVietnam and finding and developing hydrocarbon resources – particularly gas. BMI expect that oil and gas liquids production of 407,000b/d in 2011 will ease back to 395,000b/d by 2015. Consumption is forecast to increase by around 5-7% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 408,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas production is forecast to increase from the estimated 2011 figure of 9.0bcm to 21.0bcm by 2015 – providing a basis for exports.
Between 2011 and 2020, BMI are forecasting a decline in Vietnamese oil production of 23.0%, with crude volumes peaking at just under 407,000b/d in 2011, before slipping to 313,000b/d by 2020. Oil consumption between 2011 and 2020 is set to increase by 69.7%, with growth ranging from 5-7% per annum and the country using 554,000 b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 9.0bcm in 2011 to 24.0bcm in 2020. BMI see Vietnam’s net gas export potential turning into modest imports by the end of the period on the back of rising demand and steady output in the period 2016-20. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts which provide regional and country-specific projections can be found at the end of this report.
Vietnam now takes joint seventh place, alongside South Korea, in BMI’s composite Risk/Reward Ratings table, which reflects largely its strong upstream position. The country holds fourth place, behind India, in BMI’s updated upstream ratings, with its ranking reflecting a reasonable resource position, better-thanaverage growth outlook, attractive licensing terms and an IOC-friendly competitive environment. Vietnam takes joint 13th place, alongside Taiwan, in BMI’s downstream ratings, reflecting its modest (but growing) refining capacity, above-average oil and gas demand growth outlook and low level of retail site intensity.
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