Romania Agribusiness Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, September 2011, Pages: 70
Romania Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Romania's agribusiness service.
Romania is enjoying a bumper grains harvest in 2011/12, with significant gains in the wheat crop and, to a lesser extent, corn. The effects of this dynamic should feed through the rest of the agricultural economy, with livestock and dairy producers likely to benefit from lower feed prices in the remaining months of 2011 and into 2012. The improved crop should relieve pressure on bread prices, which have hit hard-pressed Romanian consumers who are already suffering the effects of austerity measures. Abundant grain stocks should also allow farmers to take advantage of high global prices on export markets going forward.
Key Forecasts
- In 2011/12, Romania is on course for a bumper wheat harvest. With 99% of harvesting complete, we have pencilled in production of 7.12mn tonnes of wheat, up 27.4% year-on-year (y-o-y).
- The corn harvest is also looking likely to impress. We are forecasting production in 2011/12 of 10.2mn tonnes, a 12.2% y-o-y increase.
- We expect increased wheat supply to result in a fall in bread prices, which rose steeply in the first half of the year. We are now forecasting wheat consumption of 3.28mn tonnes, up 2.1% yo- y and up 250,000 tonnes on our previous forecast.
- Cold weather has led us to reduce our rice production forecast for 2011/12. We now expect production of 58,000 tonnes, down 6.5% y-o-y and down 18,000 tonnes on our previous forecast.
- In 2010, we estimate Romanian milk production was 5.16mn tonnes, down 1.3% y-o-y owing to slackening demand and herd cutbacks. We forecast production in 2011 of 5.12mn tonnes, down 0.7% y-o-y as the trend continues.
- The bumper grains harvests will take the pressure off costs for poultry farmers. We have raised our forecasts for 2011 slightly, though still expect a slight fall in production to 283,000 tonnes.
Key Industry Developments
- Poor harvests in the EU and US mean that BMI is sceptical that the coming months will see significant reductions in already high wheat and corn prices. This should be to the advantage of Romanian producers, who stand ready to reap the benefits of an excellent harvest. In late August, Egypt, the world's largest wheat exporter, agreed to purchase 60,000 tonnes of Romanian wheat for October delivery.
- The Romanian Health Ministry's 'fast-food tax' has been dropped. At the beginning of 2010, the ministry announced it was seriously considering a wide-ranging fast-food tax that could place a levy as high as 20% on foods high in fat, salt, additives and sugar. In July, the Inter Press Service news agency reported that the tax had failed to get through parliament after the government decided it could be counterproductive.
- The European Commission (EC) ban on Romanian pork imports remains in place. The latest inspection mission by EC experts took place in July. The main objective was to evaluate the functioning of intracommunity trade of pork meat within the country. The EC experts concluded that the systems in place to ensure safety standards would function effectively if enough budget and human resources were allocated to them. The mission resolved to carry out a new evaluation of various technical aspects in September.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Romania Agricultural SWOT
Romania Political SWOT
Romania Economic SWOT
Romania Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Romania Grains Outlook
Table: Romania Wheat Production & Consumption
Table: Romania Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Romania Barley Production
Table: Romania Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Romania Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Romania Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
Romania Dairy Outlook
Table: Romania Milk Production & Consumption
Table: Romania Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Romania Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Romania Milk Production & Consumption
Table: Romania Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Romania Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Romania Rice Outlook
Table: Romania Rice Production & Consumption
Table: Romania Rice Production & Consumption
Romania Livestock Outlook
Table: Romania Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Romania Pork Production & Consumption
Table: Romania Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
Table: Romania Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Romania Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Romania Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Romania Sugar Outlook
Table: Romania Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Romania Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
Commodity Price Analysis
Monthly Softs Update
Cocoa
Coffee
Palm Oil
Sugar
Monthly Grains Update
Corn
Rice
Soybean
Wheat
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis
Industry Forecast
Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Canned Food
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Trade
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Trade Indicators -- Historical Data and Forecasts (US$mn)
Mass Grocery Retail
Leading Retailers
Table: Structure Of Romania's Mass Grocery Retail Sector By Estimated Number Of Outlets
Table: Structure of Romania's Mass Grocery Retail Sector -- Estimated Sales Value By Format
Table: Structure Of Romania's Mass Grocery Retail Sector -- Average Sales Value Per Retail Outlet -- 2010
Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Product Samples
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