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Southern Africa Telecommunications Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 104
BMI's latest report on the telecommunications market for Southern Africa contains updates to the region's mobile, fixed-line and internet markets.
BMI's five-year forecasts through to 2015 for the three sectors have changed for some countries following the publication of latest subscriber figures by operators and regulators. BMI's mobile forecasts are based on Q111 and Q211 data published by a number of regional operators, including Portugal Telecom, South Africa's Vodacom and MTN, France's Orange and Luxembourg's Millicom International Cellular.
In this quarter's update, BMI revised its mobile forecast for some markets based on H211 market data published by some operators. Botswana and Mozambique are among markets where BMI downgraded its forecast following the publication of market data by the countries' leading operators that show slower subscriber growth than previously anticipated. BMI has also revised its YE10 fixed-line and internet estimates for some markets, notably Namibia and Angola, based on latest available data from the ITU.
There have been a number of notable developments in the region's telecoms markets in the last few months. These include the commercial launch of 3G network services by Zamtel and the launch of mobile payments services by Botswana's two biggest operators Mascom and Orange Botswana. This is indicative of a growing trend towards higher value services, a move that will boost overall revenue growth amid falling revenues from traditional voice services and basic SMS services. It is worth mentioning that Zimbabwe's Econet Wireless intends to launch its own mobile payments platform at the end of September 2011.
On the regulatory front, Zambia's mobile operators welcomed the government's decision in March to suspend taxes on all GSM telecoms equipment. BMI expects this to facilitate network expansion to underserved areas in that country. Market leader Airtel is already taking advantage of the opportunity with the rollout of network infrastructure to the most remote parts of Western Province. The operator claims it connected about 88 isolated rural communities in its rural rollout strategy.
In Namibia, alternative broadband operator MWEB suffered a setback when the country's Supreme Court dismissed a four-year legal battle between it and fixed-line incumbent Telecom Namibia over aspects of the Telecom Act that appear to favour the incumbent and stifle competition. Meanwhile, the part privatising of incumbent operator Botswana Telecommunications Company (BTC) is still pending, with a new CEO at the helm of affairs making the process one of his top priorities.
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