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South Africa Metals Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 46
The South African steel industry is undergoing a severe contraction as domestic consumption slows and production is disrupted by plant closures, according to this latest South Africa Metals Report from BMI. In the first seven months of 2011, South African crude steel output fell 19.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 3.84mn tonnes and the country's industry looked set to reverse the 13.3% gain it reported in 2010. South Africa was losing ground to Egypt as Africa's largest steelmaking country as costs of production escalate and the domestic market remains in the doldrums.
Another factor set to hold back South African steel is the three-month closure of AMSA's Newcastle operation, which produces long steel and accounts for around 400,000tpa of crude steel output. The closure, the third such shut-down by AMSA within a year, was caused by a problem with the plant's furnace. The result is a contraction in local supply and a likely 10% hike in long steel prices at a time of slowdown for the South African construction industry.
The weakening value of the rand is unlikely to help the situation. As a result, BMI has revised down its crude steel forecast for 2011 from 7.92mn tonnes to 6.83mn tonnes, a decline of 37.5% y-o-y. BMI expects the industry to undergo a gradual recovery from 2012 with crude steel returning to above 10mn tonnes by 2015. By this time, it will be lagging behind Egypt as Africa's leading steelmaking country.
BMI remains pessimistic about the short-term outlook for South African finished steel consumption, forecasting a 10% decline to 4.47mn tonnes in 2011 and 5.6% growth to 4.72mn tonnes in 2012. The South African consumer remains heavily indebted, there are adverse wealth effects due to the weakness in the housing market and subdued growth in private sector credit.
In BMI's view, rising inflation is likely to dampen consumer confidence and increase expectations for interest rates to be hiked. BMI anticipates that the South African Reserve Bank will enact one 50 basis point rate hike in November 2011, taking the repo rate to 6.00%, and the financial markets broadly agree with this prediction.
BMI's core view on the rand is that we will see mild appreciation over the medium term that could exacerbate the loss of the steel industry's competitiveness, with currency gains driven by rising interest rates, positive trends in the balance of payments and a ‘hands-off' stance from the South African Reserve Bank. BMI forecasts the rand ending 2011 at ZAR6.70/US$ and average ZAR6.60/US$ in 2012.
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