- Published: July 2011
Spain Autos Report Q4 2011
- Published: September 2011
- Region: Spain
- 58 Pages
- Business Monitor International
BMI has revised down its vehicle sales forecasts to a more than 15% y-o-y decline in 2011 and expects only a modest 2.6% y-o-y recovery next year. The downgrade comes on the back of continued weakness in the passenger car sales segment where the market shifted 24% less cars, to 521,124 units, during 7M10 compared with the same period last year, according to estimates from the Spanish car association Anfac.
Sales for commercial vehicles, on the other hand, were down 8.4% y-o-y, to 66,421 units, during H111, the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) estimates.
BMI believes the vehicle sales performance reflects the slackened consumer and business confidence in the country as a result of aggressive fiscal austerity, rising interest rates, stubbornly high unemployment and ongoing deleveraging within the private sector.
On the other hand, vehicle production during the same period has shown a cautious recovery, growing 1.3% compared with the same period last year. Although the growth is far from encouraging, it is commendable given that it comes on the back of an over 10% y-o-y growth in vehicle production in 2010, to nearly 2.39mn units.
BMI attributes much of the rebound to an equivalent growth in exports during the year led by strength of consumer confidence in Germany and France. Although there are signs that export demand could slow down in H211, BMI maintains its end-2011 forecast of a close to 3% y-o-y growth in Spanish vehicle production, to 2.45mn units. For the medium to longer term, however, BMI believes cost pressures and the need to expand into emerging markets will continue to be a major threat to growth of autos production in Spain.
In June 2011, SEAT was reportedly considering Mexico a potential site for a new manufacturing facility outside the EU. Although details about other contending locations are as yet unavailable, it is not surprising that Mexico is one of the possible locations. Mexico is the fifth largest market for SEAT, after Spain, Germany, France and Italy and the company expects sales growth in the range of 20-22% in Mexico in 2011, to 17,000 units. Its medium-term targets see this increasing to 22,000 cars by 2015 and 25,000 units by 2018. That will mean that Mexico alone will account for over 3% of SEAT's global sales, given that it hopes to shift 800,000 units globally by that year.
The weakness in the Spanish market and limited scope for auto production growth (expected to average 2.6% y-o-y between 2011 and 2015, according to BMI forecasts) have pushed Spain's rating in BMI's Risk-Reward ratings for the autos industry in Europe to the eighth position with a total score of 55.4 points. Unless there is a significant improvement in the domestic demand conditions, BMI does not see this score moving up in its rating system. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
Spain Auto Industry SWOT
Spain Political SWOT
Spain Economic SWOT
Spain Business Environment SWOT
BMI's Core Views For The Automotives Industry
Table: Europe – Top Automotive Suppliers Sales By Region (US$mn), 2010
Business Environment Ratings
Table: BMI Industry Risk-Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe
Table: Spain - Economic Activity
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Spain Autos Sales – Historical Data And Forecasts
Table: Spain – Auto Production And Exports, 2010
Table: Spain Auto Production – Historical Data And Forecasts
Table: Spain Auto Sector – Historical Data And Forecasts
Table: Spain Auto Industry – Economic Data
Table: Spain Passenger Car Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts
Future Of Production
Table: Auto Production, 2009-2010
Alternative Fuel Segment
Table: Spain Commercial Vehicle Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts
Table: Spain Motorcycles Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts
PSA Peugeot Citroën
Country Snapshot: Spain Demographic Data
Section 1: Population Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012
How We Generate Our Forecasting Model
- PSA Peugeot Citroën
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