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Viewing report
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Taiwan Shipping Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 94
The port of Kaohsiung is set to hold the top position in Taiwan's maritime sector in terms of both total tonnage and container throughput in 2011 after it slowly begun recovering it pre-downturn throughput volumes in 2010.
Kaohsiung has a strong position to build on in 2011. It is preparing to establish a national harbour company, seeking new port partners in China, wooing Chinese investment into the port and has a number of expansion projects under way.
Over the mid term BMI projects further growth at the port of Kaohsiung. Keelung also has started its recovery, as it returned to positive growth in 2010.
Headline Industry Data
- 2011 port of Kaohsiung tonnage throughput forecast to grow 3%, over the mid-term BMI projects an 11% increase.
- 2011 port of Kaohsiung container throughput forecast to grow 5%, over the mid-term BMI projects a 9% increase.
- 2011 total trade growth forecast at 8.45%.
Key Industry Trends
Kaohsiung Looks To China For Box Growth
Taiwan's port of Kaohsiung is implementing a three-pronged strategy to attract more box custom. The port is seeking new port partners in China, as well as encouraging Chinese companies to operate at the port. The addition of big-name carriers and expansion plans to cater for larger vessels will, in BMI's view, encourage more custom, which leads us to highlight upside risk to BMI's forecasts at the port.
Cutting Taxes To Lure Fleets Back To The Flag
Taiwan is set to launch a strategy to beef up its dwindling merchant fleet. The number of vessels flagged to Taiwan has decreased steadily as operators choose flags of convenience. As well as a proposed tax reduction for Taiwanese-flagged vessels, plans are afoot to allow only domestic shipping lines to ship goods from Taiwan and China.
Growing Cross-Strait Trade A Boon For Taiwanese Port
Maritime links between China and Taiwan are growing. BMI wrote in February 2011 of the first instance of direct trading between the port of Taichung in Taiwan and the mainland. Now cross-strait shipping is to be restricted to Chinese and Taiwanese companies, and a Chinese terminals operator is contemplating investing in a container terminal at Taiwan's largest port.
Risks To Outlook
The strong base for growth at the country's ports stems from a positive outlook for the Taiwanese economy. The country's real GDP is estimated to increase by 4.3% in 2011.
An upside risk to BMI's forecasts comes in the form of Chinese interest in Taiwan's ports and expansion projects at its facilities. Downside risk to BMI's port throughput forecasts stems from the dangers to country's export growth: should we see a hard landing as opposed to a moderation of economic activity in China's economy or a double-dip recession playing out in the US, net exports could be expected to take a harder hit.
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