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France Telecommunications Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 110
This quarter's update of BMI's France Telecommunications Market Report examines the latest developments in the country's fixed-line, mobile telephony and broadband services markets. The latest data from the principal operators and the regulator show that, despite saturation, the mobile market continues to show robust growth while the fixed and broadband market is expanding steadily. Meanwhile, the rate of decline in traditional voice telephony services accelerated slightly.
BMI again point to France's mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) as the engine for top-line growth in the mobile arena. While the network operators focus on upgrading existing 2G and 3G subscribers to mobile broadband and multiplay converged services packages, the MVNOs continue to enjoy success in addressing niche and low-cost markets increasingly eschewed by the network operators. BMI expect the French market to be serving 66.67mn subscribers by the end of 2011, a figure BMI now forecast to grow to 72.80mn in 2015. This represents a small increase in our expectations for five-year growth and is predicated on an improved view of newcomer Free Mobile's prospects when it launches in 2012 with a converged services offer and a national roaming agreement with Orange. Previously, we had been expecting Free to struggle. BMI also welcome moves by the government to auction spare spectrum plus 4G licences in Q411.
The auction of 800MHz and 2.6GHz spectrum that can be used to offer 4G services using LTE-based networks has begun; initial bids were due in September 2011 and the first allocations of 2.6GHz spectrum were expected to be made in October 2011. Fourteen parcels of 800MHz spectrum are to be offered, and these will be hotly contested. The French government wants to raise as much as EUR2.5bn from the spectrum sale.
Growing usage of broadband voice and cable telephony services has served to slow the rate of decline for voice connections as a whole, but the slump in traditional line usage means that H111 figures were lower than BMI had been expecting and our forecasts for the subsequent five-year period have been adjusted downwards to take this into account. BMI now expect that, by 2015, there will be 16.72mn traditional voice lines in service in France, a penetration rate of 26.2%.
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