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Germany Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011
The latest Germany Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 20.32% of regional oil consumption by 2015, while accounting for 1.61% of supply. In Developed Europe, overall regional oil demand will be an estimated 12.71mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2011 and is set to reach 13.17mn b/d by 2015. Developed Europe regional oil production will have been an estimated 3.83mn b/d in 2011, falling potentially to just 3.34mn b/d in 2015. Regional net imports are set to rise from an estimated 8.88mn b/d in 2011 to 9.83mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK a growing net importer.
In terms of natural gas, the Developed Europe region will have consumed an estimated 457bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011, with demand of 498bcm targeted for 2015, representing 9.0% growth. Production of an estimated 238cm in 2011 is set to rise to 248bcm in 2015, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2011 level of 219bcm to some 250bcm by the end of the period. Germany's share of gas consumption in 2011 will have been an estimated 21.95%, while it will have accounted for 5.26% of production. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 22.98%, while its share of production will be 4.43%.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.6%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in both the US and Eurozone should be marginally higher than last year, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will be 1.65%, reflecting the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price assumption for 2011 is US$101.90/bbl for the OPEC basket, falling to US$97.50/bbl in 2012. BMI calculates that German real GDP will have increase by 3.47% in 2011 and we forecast 2.19% average annual growth in 2011-2015. BMI forecast end-period oil demand at no more than 2.68mn b/d.
Gas consumption is now almost a quarter of primary energy demand and its share of power generation can only rise now that nuclear energy is being phased out. Our forecast is for gas demand to rise from 100.3bcm in 2011 to 114.4bcm by 2015, with the country’s move away from nuclear power posing upside risk to longer-term consumption growth. Germany’s gas production is forecast to fall from 12.5bcm in 2011 to 11.0bcm over the period.
Between 2011 and 2020, we forecast a rise in German oil and gas liquids consumption of 8.00%, with volumes climbing steadily from an estimated 2.51mn b/d in 2011 to 2.85mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Production is set to fall from 75,000b/d to just 36,000b/d during the same period. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2011 level of 100.3bcm to 137.3bcm by 2020. Imports are expected to reach 128.3bcm in 2020, in the form of pipeline volumes. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI’s country risk team, Germany’s long-term political risk score is 87.8 out of 100, compared with the Developed Markets average of 87.1 and the global average of 63.0. BMIs long-term economic rating for the country is 67.4, above the Developed Markets average of 67.3, and above the global average of 52.9. Germany has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is a small upstream oil and gas segment, with international oil company (IOC) and local company involvement. Downstream oil features a mixture of IOCs and domestic companies, while gas and electricity interests remain in largely German (non-state) hands.
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