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Germany Real Estate Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 47
The outlook for European growth and, indeed, global growth has taken a downward turn during mid- 2011, primarily driven by weakening economic statistics in the US and the continuing debt crisis in Europe. This is likely to have an impact on the outlook for the German property sector, even if just on sentiment at this stage. The latest interviews carried out by BMI with in-country contacts essentially confirm this increased cautiousness with a flat outlook for rents and yields. Nonetheless, BMI’s economic outlook for Germany still remains intact and positive.
Germany's economic growth in Q111 was driven primarily by strong domestic demand, and as a result BMI raised its full-year forecast to 3.5% from 3.0% previously. Supported by improvements in labour productivity and higher gross fixed investment contributions to headline growth, we reaffirmed an above consensus outlook for Europe's largest economy. Going forward, growth is expected to moderate to 2.0% in 2012, as the external environment becomes more challenging for German manufacturers The commercial real estate sector in Germany has benefited from strong uptake in H111 and vacancy rates have fallen somewhat. There is a significant increase in demand for green buildings with high quality fittings and efficient use of space. Given the still relatively strong economic outlook for Germany, demand should continue to absorb new supply.
Investment transactions in the retail sector in the first half of 2011 were the highest of all the sectors. Notable deals involved US private firms buying into the German retail market, encouraged by reasonable yields and the domestic demand outlook.
Key Opportunities The economic outlook for Germany still remains positive, which should ensure resilience in the German property market, particularly in comparison with the rest of Europe. Take-up for commercial property in Germany was strong in H111, absorbing new supply and reducing vacancy levels across the major cities
Key Threats The European debt crisis and a weakening US economy are raising the risk of a double-dip recession in the Western world. German property would be impacted and, in particular, in the investment area.
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