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Viewing report
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Ghana Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 70
BMI View:
Globally, Ghana is ranked as the 74th most attractive market for pharmaceutical business, out of a total of 84 countries surveyed by BMI's proprietary Business Environment Ratings (BER) matrix. Nevertheless, economic progress and oil revenues have the potential to increase the current low levels of per capita spending on medicines over the medium-to-longer term, as opportunities are supported by political stability.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: GHC510mn (US$357mn) in 2010 to GHC569mn (US$390mn) in 2011; +11.4% in local currency terms and +9.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast up moderately from Q311 due to macroeconomic factors.
- Healthcare: GHC1.90bn (US$1.33bn) in 2010 to GHC2.20bn (US$1.51bn) in 2011; +15.7% in local currency terms and +13.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast up moderately from Q311 due to macroeconomic factors and adjustment of historical figures.
- Medical devices: GHC72mn (US$50mn) in 2010 to GHC83mn (US$57mn) in 2011; +15.4% in local currency terms and +13.3% in US dollar terms.
Forecast up moderately from Q311 due to macroeconomic factors.
Business Environment Rating:
In the Q411 BER for the 19 markets BMI surveys in the MEA region, Ghana receives an unchanged composite pharmaceutical rating of 39.5. This figure again places it in the 16th position within the regional market. Generally speaking, the country's scores are stronger on the risk than on the rewards side, primarily due to the low per capita spending on pharmaceuticals, which makes for a small overall market size – although its longer-term potential is sizeable.
Key Trends & Developments
- In August 2011, Ghana's regulatory authority issued a statement to warn the public against the sale of counterfeit artesunate tablets containing no active ingredient, manufactured by Chinese Guilin Pharmaceutical Company. In order to tackle this problem, Ghana's Ministry of Health has signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Cuban company Labiofam to produce the medicines locally.
- In the meantime, news sources in Ghana are also suggesting that local drug barons have started to manufacture counterfeit drugs as it is a less risky and a more profitable business than narcotics.
BMI Economic View:
BMI has upwardly revised itd
forecast for 2011 real GDP growth in Ghana, which also makes for a more positive pharmaceutical market outlook. BMI is forecasting economic expansion of 15.1% driven primarily by the onset of oil production, but also supported by strong performances in agribusiness, mining and infrastructure. BMI now sees real GDP growth coming in at 15.1% in 2011 (previous estimate was 14.0%).
BMI Political View:
The contest for Ghana's December 2012 legislative and presidential elections is heating up. Although the incumbent president has secured his position as the National Democratic Congress (NDC)'s candidate, he does not have an easy ride ahead of him. Nevertheless, the NDC will benefit from a strong economy and from coherence at the top. Consequently, BMI does not envisage major downside political risks to its healthcare and pharmaceutical forecasts, with the election winner likely to introduce public healthcare concessions instead.
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