Hong Kong Tourism Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, September 2011, Pages: 66
BMI Still Upbeat On Hong Kong Tourism The outlook for Hong Kong tourism is very bright as in the second half of 2011. H111 tourist arrivals were up by 14.7% year on year (y-o-y) to 19,331,181 people, according to data from the Hong Kong Tourism Board (HKTB). This puts the territory well on course to reach our target of 38.93mn tourists for the full year.
Looking at source markets, mainland China remains the dominant country, contributing 12.7mn tourists to Hong Kong over January-June 2011, an increase of 21.1% y-o-y. Other short-haul markets that are performing well include South Korea (up by 18.6% in H111) and Indonesia (up by 24.3%). Further afield, the HKTB identified Russia, from where arrivals were up by over 50% in H111, as a strongly performing source market.
BMI remains bullish about the outlook for inbound tourism to Hong Kong over our forecast period through to 2015, with the territory continuing to offer high standards of hospitality and many different types of tourist attractions. China will continue to be the main source market for inbound tourists and should grow rapidly in the years ahead.
Beyond 2011, our forecasting model calculates a 5-6% average annual increase over the coming years, leading to a total of 47.87mn tourists by 2015.
High-End Hotels Boost Tourism Offering In May 2011, the Ritz-Carlton Hong Kong opened. This 312-room hotel is on the floors 102-118 of the International Commerce Centre, making it the world's highest hotel. The property has six dining venues, extensive meeting and conference facilities, a 705m2 ballroom and an 860m2 ESPA facility. In June 2011, the 209-room Dorsett Regency Hong Kong and the 258-room Best Western Hotel Causeway Bay opened. The 55-room Mercer boutique hotel opened in Q111, offering guests free Wi-Fi, a complimentary airport shuttle service and a 24-hour gym.
BMI believes these premium brand hotels will do much to boost average room rates across Hong Kong in 2011 and the openings underline the buoyant state of high-end tourism in the special administrative region (SAR) at this time. Openings scheduled for later in year include the 380-room Dorsett Regency Kwun Tong and the 258-room L'Hotel Kowloon Bay.
In April 2011, in what is believed to be a first for the global hospitality industry, Hong Kong's Polytechnic University opened a five-star training hotel called Hotel Icon. The 28-storey hotel with 265 guest rooms offers hospitality industry students the chance to experience ‘real life' situations in the running of a high-end hotel property and should do much to consolidate Hong Kong's reputation as a provider of first-class tourism services. Hotel Icon will also serve as a research test bed for new ways of thinking in the industry, with three rooms to be used as ‘prototype rooms'.
Profit Down Sharply At Cathay Pacific In August 2011, Hong Kong flag carrier Cathay Pacific released mixed H111 results. Although turnover was up by 13.2% y-o-y to HKD46.79bn, profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 58.9% y-o-y to HKD2.8bn as a result of high jet fuel costs, the airline said.
Over the first half of the year, Cathay took delivery of six new aircraft, with another eight deliveries scheduled for H211. In March 2011, the airline announced plans to buy 27 new planes, two Airbus A350-900s, 15 Airbus A330-300s and 10 Boeing 777-300ERs. In August 2011, Cathay announced a further acquisition of four Boeing 777-300ERs and eight Boeing 777-200F freighters.
Speaking at the announcement of the results, company chairman Christopher Pratt said 2011 has been a more challenging year than 2010, when the airline posted recorded profit. He said: ‘The outlook for the world economy is uncertain and a return to recessionary economic conditions would also affect demand and possibly average price levels.' That said, he believes the airline has a strong financial position and that it remains in a good position to deal with rising operating costs.
Further information about Cathay Pacific is available in the Company Profiles section at the end of this report.
SWOT Analysis
Hong Kong Political SWOT
Hong Kong Economic SWOT
Hong Kong Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Arrivals
Table: Arrivals Data, 2008-2015
Accommodation
Table: Hotel Rooms, 2008-2015
Expenditure
Table: Tourism Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2008-2015
Inbound Tourism
Table: Inbound Tourism Data, 2008-2015
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2008-2015
Meeting China's Tourism Needs
MICE Travel Continues To Soar
Table: Overnight MICE Arrivals, January-June 2011
Disneyland Hong Kong
Market Overview – Travel
Commercial Airlines
Cruises
Table: Cruise Arrivals, 2010
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, 2011 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2011-2015 (US$/bbl)
Market Overview – Hospitality
Accommodation
Accommodation Developments
H5N1 And H1N1 Virus Update
Business Environment Outlook
Table: Asia Pacific Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings
BMI's Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
City Terrorism Ratings
Table: BMI Asia Pacific City Terrorism Index
North East Asia Security Overview
Global Assumptions
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average)
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average)
Developed States
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
Emerging Markets
Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
Company Profiles
Cathay Pacific
Melco International Development
Shangri-La
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings – Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting of Components
City Terrorism Ratings
Table: City Terrorism Ratings Methodology
Sources
- Cathay Pacific
- Melco International Development
- Shangri-La
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