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Latvia Shipping Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 89
Providing good news for Latvia's shipping sector is the performance of Germany's main port Hamburg, which defied the country's macroeconomic woes in H111 by recording a considerable rise in box throughput. This has been attributed to the integral role of increasing demand from Latvia, Russia, Poland, Lithuania and Estonia.
In terms of politics, Latvia is currently in something of a state of flux. Latvian voters went to the ballot box on July 23 2011 to vote on a referendum to dissolve parliament. The referendum was called by expresident Valdis Zatlers following parliament's efforts to prevent prosecutors from searching the home of a member of the legislature as a result of a corruption inquiry. Around 95% of the electorate backed the motion, which will now pave the way for early elections, which are expected to take place on September 17.
Headline Industry Data
- 2011 port of Riga tonnage throughput is forecast to grow 5.96%, while growth over the forecast period is predicted to average 2.7%.
- 2011 port of Riga container throughput is forecast to increase 20.95%, following an increase of 39.07% in 2010. Growth to average 8.44% to 2015.
- 2011 total trade real growth is forecast to rise 10.15%, and is set to average 4.83% to 2015. Key Industry Trends
Hamburg Defies Economic Woes With 17.4% Container Throughput Rise In H111 Seemingly at odds with Germany's disappointing Q2 real GDP growth, Germany's main port, Hamburg, has recorded a considerable rise in box throughput. But it appears to be as a result of the port's transhipment role catering for increasing demand from Russia, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. The growth has placed it once more in the running for second place in Europe's box-shipping ports top 10. Maersk To Manage US Military Shipments
Danish shipping company Maersk Line has confirmed that it will manage the movement of US military shipments via Latvia from Afghanistan, reports Baltic Course citing Latvian Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis.
Risks To Outlook On the upside, growth in Latvian industrial output may have slowed in May 2011, but it is still expanding at an enviable clip. According to the latest data provided by the statistical office, industrial production increased 10.2% in May compared with the same month a year earlier, moderating from 13.7% the previous month, though marking an almost uninterrupted year of double-digit growth. We expect industry to continue posting solid growth as a result of the recovery in global demand conditions, though we expect the pace of growth to moderate. We forecast industrial production to expand 9.0% in 2011 and 7.5% in 2012.
Russia has moved to decrease its reliance on Baltic states' ports for its liquid-bulk shipment needs with the opening of a new terminal at the Russian port of Ust-Luga, consequently providing a potential downside risk to the Latvian shipping sector.
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