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Mexico Freight Transport Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 39
In December 2010 we revised our Mexican 2011 real GDP projection to what was then an aboveconsensus 4.1%, since which time consensus has overtaken us. A survey of private sector economists by Banamex showed average growth forecasts of 4.4% for 2011, and even Mexico's finance ministry is now forecasting growth to hit 4.2-4.3%. Yet while there is certainly justification for more optimistic sentiment, with the Mexican consumer yet to join the party and the oil price trajectory posing downside risks, for now we resist the temptation for another upward revision to our growth projections. Both of these factors present downside risks to our forecasts for Mexico's shipping and freight transport sectors.
Consumer confidence has made a pretty solid recovery in recent months, but we still see a large divergence between external and domestic demand performance. This trend has been reflected in other sectors of the economy, with Wal-Mart de México reporting a 1.1% y-o-y decline in same-store sales in March 2011, after a tepid 1.8% expansion in February. With the bulk of new private sector credit still going to corporations rather than consumers, and remittances far off historic highs in nominal terms, at present there is little to like about the health of private consumption in Mexico.
Headline Industry Data
- Air freight tonnes forecast to grow 9.72% in 2011, with average annual growth of 7.67% during our forecast period, to 2015.
- Port of Manzanillo total tonnage forecast to grow 6.55% in 2011, with average annual growth of 9.11% during our forecast period.
- Port of Veracruz total tonnage forecast to grow 3.93% in 2011, with average annual growth of 5.71% during our forecast period
- Rail freight tonnes forecast to grow 3% in 2011, with average annual growth of 4% during our forecast period.
- Road freight tonnes forecast to grow 4% in 2011, with average annual growth of 3% during our forecast period.
- Inland waterway freight tonnes forecast to grow 2% in 2011, with average annual growth of 4% during our forecast period.
Key Industry Trends Vopak To Take Advantage Of Mexican LNG Imports With New Terminal Global tank-storage firm Vopak has joined forces with Spain-based Enagas to acquire 100% of shares in the LNG import and re-gasification terminal in Altamira, Mexico. The acquisition was made from prior owners Shell (50%), Mitsui & Co (25%) and Total (25%), the companies said. The financial terms were not disclosed. The companies formed a joint venture for the deal, in which Vopak owns 60% of the shares and Enagas 40% (with joint management control). The move is in line with the companies' expectations that gas-fired power generation capacity in Mexico will outpace gas supply, guaranteeing strong demand for imported LNG. This reflects BMI's forecasts, which show gas-fired power generation capacity expanding by as much as 7.5% in 2011.
HPH Keeps Control Of Lázaro Cárdenas As Court Rules Against Second Container Terminal BMI believes the plan for a second container terminal at Mexico's port of Lázaro Cárdenas is likely to be shelved after the Mexican federal court ruled against the validity of the tender. With our consumer sentiment outlook for both Mexico and the US remaining cautious, we question the need for a new container terminal at the port. We believe Hutchinson Port Holdings (HPH) will continue to operate the port's only container terminal until 2017.
Mexico Threatens More Tariffs As NAFTA Trucking Dispute Rumbles On BMI believes that a planned cross-border trucking pilot project between the US and Mexico is good news for road freight operators and shippers in both countries. An agreement on the issue is long overdue. We caution, however, that if the latest agreement is not successful, Mexico may increase the US$2.4bn in punitive tariffs it has placed on US goods.
An official from the Mexican embassy in the US says Mexico 'reserves the right' to broaden and increase punitive tariffs if the Obama administration fails to implement the agreed cross-border trucking programme. 'We reserve the right to re-impose, change, increase or deepen the retaliation list,' Karen Antebi told the Washington International Trade Association June 29. The tariffs were imposed two years ago when the Obama administration suspended a pilot programme allowing 100 Mexican trucks access to the US.
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