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Belgium Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 57
The latest Belgium Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 4.78% of regional oil consumption by 2015, while making no contribution to supply. In developed Europe, overall regional oil demand will be an estimated 12.71mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2011 and is set to reach 13.17mn b/d by 2015. Developed Europe regional oil production will have been an estimated 3.83mn b/d in 2011, falling potentially to just 3.34mn b/d in 2015. Regional net imports are set to rise from an estimated 8.88mn b/d in 2011 to 9.83mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK a growing net importer.
In terms of natural gas, the developed Europe region will have consumed an estimated 457bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011, with demand of 498bcm targeted for 2015, representing 9.0% growth. Production of an estimated 238cm in 2011 is set to rise to 248bcm in 2015, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2011 level of 219bcm to some 250bcm by the end of the period. The Belgian share of gas consumption in 2011 will have been an estimated 4.30%, while it has no appreciable share of production. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 4.30%.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.6%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in both the US and Eurozone should be marginally higher than last year, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will be 1.65%, reflecting the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011.
Our oil price assumption for 2011 is US$101.90/bbl for the OPEC basket, falling to US$97.50/bbl in 2012. BMI forecasts that Belgian real GDP will rise by 2.51% in 2011. We are assuming average annual growth of 2.14% in 2011-2015. Oil demand is expected to have recovered only slightly in 2011, before rising slowly to reach 628,700b/d by 2015. From an estimated 19.7bcm in 2011, we expect to see gas demand rise to a minimum of 21.4bcm by 2015, all met by increased pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.
Between 2011 and 2020, we forecast an increase in Belgian oil and gas liquids consumption of 8.36%, with volumes rising slowly from an estimated 604,000b/d in 2011 to 654,000b/d in 2020. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2011 level of 19.7bcm to 23.5bcm by 2020, all based on LNG and pipeline imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
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