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Japan Telecommunications Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 99
Business Monitor International's Japan Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Japan's telecommunications industry.
BMI has incorporated the latest data provided by Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC), as well as telecoms companies, namely NTT DoCoMo, KDDI and Softbank, in its forecast scenarios. Consequently, there were revisions to its expectations for the Japanese mobile, fixed-line and broadband segments, and operators' ARPU levels.
The Japanese mobile industry grew to 125.241mn in the quarter ended June 2011. NTT DoCoMo remained the dominant player, but has seen its market share continued to be eroded mainly by Softbank. NTT DoCoMo's market share fell to 46.6% in June 2011 from 48.1% in the same period last year. By comparison, Softbank saw its market share increased to 20.9% in June 2011, up from 19.2% in June 2010. Meanwhile, KDDI has also been losing grip on its second-ranked position after its market share fell to 26.6% in June 2011.
Despite the maturity of the mobile market,BMI continues to see robust subscriber growth due to operators' aggressive marketing tactics to seek growth. BMI is now forecasting 128.507mn mobile subscribers in Japan by end-2011. The rapid growth in Japan's mobile industry would largely come at the expense of the fixed-line sector. BMI has downgraded its fixed-line forecasts and BMI predicts there will be 35.457mn fixed lines in Japan by the end of 2015.
Japanese telecoms operators have largely withstood the impact of the March earthquake and tsunami, based on the latest financial results released. This chimes with BMI's view that the disaster will not have a permanent structural impact on the sector's long-term outlook, which is due to constant technological advancements and consumers' robust appetite for new devices and content.
Japan has retained its position as the top country in BMI's telecoms Asia Pacific business environment ratings. While the resilience demonstrated by the Japanese telecoms industries played an important role in consolidating the country's position on the table, BMI cautions that Japan's macroeconomic condition remains weak and could affect its overall telecoms rating score. Japan's economy has fallen back into recession following the March earthquake. Real GDP declined by a seasonally adjusted 0.9% q-o-q in Q111, following a 0.8% q-o-q contraction in Q410.
Further declines are to be expected in Q211, and BMI believes that the prospect of a V-shaped recovery is remote, given the underlying weakness of Japan's economy and the need for the public sector to cut back. Meanwhile, on the political front, perhaps the biggest question after the Great Tohoku earthquake is whether the crisis will trigger profound political and economic changes in Japan, or merely reinforce the status quo of long-term economic decline. Given the magnitude of the event, it would be unusual if there were no consequences, but these could take many years to play out.
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