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Jordan Telecommunications Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 102
Business Monitor International's Jordan Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Jordan's telecommunications industry.
BMI's analysis of the Jordanian telecoms market this quarter incorporates market data published by the telecoms regulator the Telecommunications Regulatory Commission (TRC) and leading service providers. These are France Telecom-backed Jordan Telecom (Orange), Zain Jordan, Qatar Telecom (Qtel)- owned wi-tribe and Bahrain Telecom (Batelco)-owned Umniah. BMI's five-year forecast for the mobile, fixed and broadband sectors are largely unchanged this quarter as the latest market data are in line with its previous forecasts. BMI also updated its ARPU forecast for the mobile market this quarter. The forecast is based on available market data and overall trends in the telecoms market.
The latest available data from the TRC for the mobile, fixed and internet sectors relate to the end of Q111. Meanwhile, Jordan's three mobile operators provided subscribers figures for Q211. As highlighted in previous reports, the TRC's estimate for the overall mobile subscriber base continues to differ from the sum of the subscriber figures provided by the individual operators. The most likely reason for this difference is the use of different metrics by the regulator and operators to account for active subscribers.
Meanwhile, third-ranked Umniah is yet to announce significant discount of inactive lines, an indication the operator may be reporting a higher number of subscribers than the number attributed to it by the regulator. BMI's analysis and forecast are based on the operators' results, which are published sooner than those of the regulator.
According to the regulator, there were 6.834mn mobile subscribers in Jordan at the end of Q111, comprising 6.254mn prepaid subscribers and 580,336 postpaid users. Using market data published by the country's three operators,BMI calculates there were 7.041mn mobile subscribers at the end of Q111, representing a growth of 3.8% q-o-q.
During Q211, the market grew by a further 6.8% y-o-y to reach 7.562mn subscribers. These figures show the mobile market in Jordan grew rapidly during H111, partly because of a rise in demand for communication services during the political uprising in Q111 and the strong take-up of 3G services provided by Zain and Orange.
BMI expects the strong subscriber growth to continue in H211, driven by promotional offers during the 2011 Ramadan period and strong demand for 3G connections. BMI therefore revised up its forecast for 2011 and for the remainder of its forecast period. Mobile subscriptions are expected to reach 7.7mn by the end of 2011 and 9.9mn by 2015.
The broadband market registered strong growth in Q111, driven by a category of broadband access the regulator terms as 'Order'. BMI believes this refers to 3G-based mobile broadband subscriptions. This category grew from 2,003 subscribers at the end of 2010 to 135,551 by March 2011. This period coincides with the surge in 3G subscriptions on Orange's network and the roll out of 3G services by Zain. 3G-based mobile broadband services are expected to be the dominant form of internet access by end-2010. In May 2011 Zain said it registered 100,000 mobile broadband subscribers, while Orange disclosed it had as many as 500,000 3G subscribers.
BMI believes a considerable number of those are mobile broadband users with dedicated modems and USB sticks. BMI maintains its positive outlook for the broadband sector and expect broadband penetration to reach 11.7% by 2015.
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