|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Chile Freight Transport Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 42
Chile's good macroeconomic outlook, and particularly its strong consumer story, will continue to drive container traffic at its ports. Our positive outlook for the Chilean economy remains in place, and we are upwardly revising our 2011 real GDP growth forecast for Chile to 5.9%, from 5.4% previously, and retaining our 5.0% growth forecast for 2012. We believe the economic expansion will be increasingly underpinned by private consumption and an uptick in fixed investment. A number of leading indicators, including new cars sales and supermarket sales, suggest that the consumer sector strengthened considerably in 2010, and we expect consumption to grow further in 2011 and 2012 as wealth rises across the country, contributing to robust GDP growth rates and buoying imports. On the export side, we expect strong Asian demand for Chilean copper to continue.
Headline Industry Data
- Air freight tonnage forecast to rise 11.5% in 2011, with average growth of 10.4% over the next five years.
- Total tonnes at the Port of Valparaíso forecast to rise 17% in 2011, with average growth of 14% over the next five years.
- Rail freight tonnes forecast to rise 10% in 2011, with average growth of 4.6% over the next five years.
Key Industry Trends MSC Partnership Could Bring CSAV's Route Cuts To A Close
Chile's CSAV has cut its fourth route since the beginning of 2011 as it tries to manage the decline in rates on the back of overcapacity in the container shipping sector. However, BMI hopes that the tie up with MSC will enable the carrier to halt its service suspension tactic and allow it to retain its diverse route portfolio.
Latin American Air Freight Continues To Outperform As Developed Markets Lag Behind BMI's view that Latin America is an area with excellent potential for air freight carriers continues to play out. Lufthansa Cargo's strong tonnage growth in the first six months of 2011 was mainly due to strong growth in the Americas, as a full recovery in the traditional markets is not yet assured.
LatAm Rail On Track For Much-Needed Improvements Thanks To Chinese Investment The trend of Chinese investment in Latin America's rail infrastructure in order to secure access to the region's rich reserves of raw materials and agricultural produce is continuing. The latest in a series of large-scale investments is likely to be a railway designed to transport soybeans from Brazil's Matto Grosso state to Santarém port in the northern state of Pará.
Risks To Outlook The main downside risk to our outlook is the possibility that Chile will not be able to improve its port infrastructure in order to keep up with demand. Infrastructure deficits limit expansion. If Chile does not improve efficiency and capacity there is risk that as ports begin to reach the limits of their capacity coming up to 2014 importers will look elsewhere for their supplies.
In previous months we highlighted the risk of the economy overheating, and in line with our view, we believe that policy makers will continue to act to reduce the threat posed to longer-term economic growth, but see downside risks to our positive growth outlook emerging from increased political tensions.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
