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Hong Kong Telecommunications Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Oct 2011, Pages: 100
The Hong Kong Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hong Kong's telecommunications industry.
Hong Kong’s mobile industry exhibited a growth momentum in June 2011 that was stronger than BMI had previously expected. Consequently, BMI has revised upwards the forecasts for the number of mobile and 3G subscribers. 14.758mn mobile subscribers are now envisaged in Hong Kong by end-2011, before increasing to 17.248mn in 2015, representing a penetration rate of 235.0%. Meanwhile, there were 6.675mn 3G subscribers in the territory at the end of June 2011, and BMI has upgraded the end-2015 forecast to 15.016mn subscribers, an equivalent of 204.5%.
The significant increase in the number of 3G subscribers could be attributed to the increasing ownership of multiple devices such as smartphones and tablet computers. Meanwhile, BMI has have retained the forecasts for the number of fixed lines and broadband subscribers as they are on track to meet the target.
In this quarter’s update, BMI has revised recent historical subscriber data for some of Hong Kong’s mobile operators in light of new data. CSL New World Mobility retained its position as the mobile market leader with 2.993mn mobile subscribers at the end of June 2011, according to parent Telstra. Hutchison Telecommunications Hong Kong Holdings, which markets under the brand 3 Hong Kong, was a close second with 2.967mn subscribers. BMI estimates that China Mobile Hong Kong came in third with 2.511mn subscribers while SmarTone and PCCW Mobile were a distant fourth (1.541mn) and fifth (1.506mn) respectively. The remaining portion of the mobile market could be attributed to the 11 mobile virtual network operators.
Hong Kong has one of the highest fixed-line penetration rates in the Asia Pacific region and this is largely due to continue demand for the service from the business segment. While the number of residential fixed lines has been trending downwards in the last decade, demand for corporate fixed lines has largely remained stable. In fact, the number of corporate fixed lines reached 1.814mn in June 2011, up from 1.736mn at the end of 2010. By comparison, the number of non-exchange lines (which includes IP and wireless fixed telephony services) paints a slightly different picture. Corporate demand has largely stagnated between 59,000 and 64,000 in the last four years, but residential demand has been increasing steadily. At the end of June 2011, there were 607,427 residential non-exchange lines, up from 465,658 a year ago.
Hong Kong's Q211 real GDP registered its first contraction in nine quarters, declining by 0.5% q-o-q in seasonally adjusted terms. A poor showing this round has its roots in Hong Kong's export sector, which is highly leveraged on China. BMI expects to see continued weakness in Hong Kong's trade-dependent economy, as global demand is likely to remain weak in the coming quarters. Additionally, BMI expects a correction in Hong Kong's property market to adversely affect domestic demand. Despite the contraction, BMI is happy to maintain the 2011 growth forecast at 5.0% and 3.9% into 2012 (against consensus expectations of 6.0% and 4.9% respectively).
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