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Qatar Telecommunications Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Oct 2011, Pages: 85
The Qatar Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Qatar's telecommunications industry.
BMI’s Q411 update on Qatar’s telecoms market incorporates data from fixed-line incumbent operator Qatar Telecom (Qtel) and alternative operator Vodafone Qatar, a subsidiary of UK-based Vodafone Group Plc, relating to the end of June 2011. The latest five-year forecasts for the country’s mobile, fixedline and internet sectors, which extend to 2015, is based on recent developments in Qatar's telecoms sector, as well as the view of the country's macroeconomic environment during the next five years. BMI has also updated their forecast for mobile ARPU based on latest data published by the two operators that show a strong uptick in ARPU rates in Q211 following the exit of Qtel Virgin Mobile Services (QVMS) from the mobile market.
According to latest data published by the operators, Qatar’s mobile market declined by 0.1% q-o-q during Q211 to reach 2.779mn subscribers. This represented the first-ever quarterly contraction of the Qatari mobile market. It was driven by subscriber net loss by Qtel for the fourth consecutive quarter and net additions of just 4,000 by Vodafone, which was considerably fewer than in previous quarters. It is likely Vodafone has started discounting inactive SIMs on its network, a move that poses a downside risk to the growth forecast. BMI downgraded the mobile growth expectations this quarter to reflect the likelihood of inactive SIM discounting that will continue in the market. Mobile penetration is now expected to reach 190.2% by 2015.
Meanwhile, the exit of QVMS from the mobile market seems to have impacted positively on operators’ ARPU. Vodafone attributed an 11% y-o-y increase in ARPU rate to a reduction in downward pressure on mobile tariffs following the cessation of services by QVMS. For its part, Qtel reported a 16.7% y-o-y increase in ARPU to reach a two-year high. With both operators increasingly focusing on higher value services, further increase in ARPU are forecast over the next five years. By 2015, mobile ARPU in the Qatari market is expected to reach QAR25.
Qatar’s fixed-line and internet sectors continue to benefit from the growing popularity of triple-play services. Market data published by incumbent operator Qtel show net additions of 6,641 fixed lines during H111 and 9,363 DSL subscribers during the first six months of 2011. At the same time, the operator registered 12,756 triple-play subscribers. BMI expects a demand for triple-play services, boosted by the increasing range of channels on Qtel’s Mosaic TV and competion to sustain positive growth in the fixed sector over the medium term. Meanwhile, BMI also expects the arrival of fixed-line services by Vodafone to introduce competition and drive further fixed-line and broadband subscriber growth.
Market data from Qtel also show steady growth in wireless broadband subscriptions. BMI has included these in the broadband data resulting in the revision of the historical and forecast data. It is now estimated that there were about 210,000 broadband subscribers in Qatar in 2010 and this number is expected to reach 416,000 by 2015. This will represent a penetration rate of 25.5%.
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