|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Vietnam Telecommunications Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Oct 2011, Pages: 101
The Vietnam Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Vietnam’s telecommunications industry.
The latest data from Vietnam’s Ministry of Information and Communications (MIC) indicate that there were 112.691mn mobile subscribers at the end of December 2010. This significantly differed from the General Statistics Office (GSO)’s figure of 157.6mn at the same period. Although the GSO reports the number of Vietnamese mobile subscribers on a monthly basis, BMI bases the subscriber forecast on the MIC’s data, especially since the ministry provides a subscriber breakdown by operators. According to the latest forecast for the Vietnamese market, BMI believes there will be 123.960mn mobile subscribers by end- 2011, representing a penetration rate of 138.9%. A slowdown in the growth momentum is forseen due to market saturation and the fact that major mobile operators have started scaling back aggressive promotions after significant downward pressure on profitability. Meanwhile, BMI has also revised the forecast for the number of fixed-line subscribers in Vietnam and believes the number will decline to 13.913mn in 2015, down from 16.212mn at the end of 2011.
In light of the subscriber breakdown by operator figures provided by the MIC, BMI was able to more accurately assess the effect on competition arising from the dominance of Vietnam Posts and Telecommunications (VNPT)-controlled MobiFone and VinaPhone, and Viettel. The three mobile operators accounted for 93.6% of the market at the end of December 2010, with the remaining 6.4% shared among the four smaller companies. Beeline VN was the worst performer in 2010 after its subscriber base fell to 187,000 down from 2.122mn at the end of 2009. A new government regulation, the Decree No. 25/2011/ND-CP started on June 1 2011 and was supposed to force VNPT to relinquish its stake in one of the mobile operators that it controlled. The privatisation would also attract foreign investors and level the playing field. However, the MIC has announced that it has given the state-owned entity a two-year extension due to VNPT’s complex structure. BMI believes that there could be greater urgency if the government wants to instil investor confidence and improve the industry's competitive landscape
The MIC also revealed that the number of 3G subscribers have reached 8mn in July 2011, up from 7,500 in April 2010. The growth in the subscriber base was attributed to the introduction of several value-added services including music, news, mobile games and multimedia. However, the number of subscribers only represented about 7% of the country’s mobile market, which suggest that the market is not quite ready for next-generation mobile technologies.
Vietnam retained its 14th position in BMI’s latest Asia Pacific telecoms business environment ratings, with a telecoms rating score of 46.9. Vietnam's real GDP growth figure came in slightly better than expected at 5.7% y-o-y in Q211. However, economic activity is expected to continue to moderate in H211, and this is seen as a positive sign that government efforts to iron out macroeconomic imbalances in the economy remain on track. Despite incipient evidence of a narrowing trade deficit, BMI warns that global economic headwinds remain a downside risk to external demand. Accordingly, real GDP growth is projected to remain subdued at 6.3% for 2011 (below the government's target of 6.5%), but BMI remains optimistic that a pick-up in growth towards 7.2% in 2012 could be seen.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
