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Japan Freight Transport Report Q4 2011
The earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan in March 2011, and the subsequent nuclear fallout scare, had a devastating effect on the Japanese shipping sector. Industries were hit and landside infrastructure was battered. The Japanese ports sector continued its recovery in Q311, and BMI's long-term view that there could be upside potential for Japanese facilities in terms of tonnage - if not container throughput - has begun to play out. Japanese airlines have struggled, seeing international and domestic volumes fall, though we note that domestic volumes have fared much better than international.
Headline Industry Data
- Port of Chiba 2011 tonnage throughput forecast to grow 0.8%, with average annual year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 1.1% during the forecast period.
- Port of Nagoya 2011 tonnage throughput forecast to grow 3.1%, with average annual y-o-y growth of 4.7% during the forecast period.
- Air freight tonnes 2011 forecast to grow 1.5%, with average annual y-o-y growth of 2.3% during the forecast period.
- Road freight tonnes 2011 forecast to grow 0.5%, with average annual growth of 0.4% during the forecast period.
- Rail freight tonnes 2011 forecast to grow 0.2%, with average annual y-o-y growth of 0.3% during the forecast period.
Key Trends and Developments
Closer Cooperation to Come
Japan Airlines Cargo (JAL) and American Airlines announced in June 2011 that they would be strengthening ties between their respective cargo operations. The agreement was forged in April and will provide customers with increased choice of destination and route. The airlines also claim that new synergies will facilitate the seamless and speedy transfer of express products. A press release read: 'The joint business agreement between JAL and American which began April 1, 2011, is expected to benefit customers on many levels, including cargo. Both airlines continue to explore ways in which closer cooperation can bring increased benefit to customers.'
Japan Continues To Bounce Back From March Disaster
The earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan in March 2011, and the subsequent nuclear fallout scare, had a devastating effect on the Japanese shipping sector. Industries were hit and landside infrastructure was battered. The Japanese ports sector continued its recovery in Q311, and BMI's long-term view that there could be upside potential for Japanese facilities in terms of tonnage throughput - if not container - has begun to play out.
New Freight Station
Yusen Logistics is to launch a new freight station at the town of Yamagata, located 180 miles to the north of Tokyo. Serving the station will be a new consolidated shipment service, named the 'Captain Consolidation Service Satellite Express'. This will integrate shuttle truck services between Tokyo's Narita airport and Yamagata with Yusen's consolidated shipment service for ocean freight forwarding.
Risks to Outlook
A major risk to the economic outlook comes from another collapse in external demand as was seen during the height of the global financial crisis. This would come at the worst possible time for the economy, which is currently suffering from negative domestic demand growth. If both external and domestic demand decreased sharply then the effect on Japan's freight transport sector would be highly negative. Japanese airlines have already seen international and domestic volumes fall dramatically yearon- year (y-o-y).
Japan Freight Transport Industry SWOT
Japan Political SWOT
Japan Economic SWOT
Japan Business Environment SWOT
Industry Trends And Developments
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, 2011 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2011-2015 (US$/bblL)
Table: Air Freight, 2008-2015
Table: Rail Freight, 2008-2015
Table: Road Freight, 2008-2015
Table: Maritime Freight - Throughput, 2008-2015 ('000 tonnes and % change y-o-y)
Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2015
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2015 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
Table: Japan's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Table: Japan's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Long-Term Political Outlook
Table: Japan – Economic Activity, 2008-2015
All Nippon Airways Cargo (ANA Cargo)
Japan Airlines Corporation Cargo (JAL Cargo)
Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) (Container)
NYK Container Line
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd (K Line)
NYK (Dry Bulk)
Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) Tankers
Nippon Yusen Kaisha (NYK Line) Tankers
Country Snapshot: Japan Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
How BMI Generates the Industry Forecasts
- Yusen Logistics
- Japan Airlines Corporation Cargo (JAL Cargo)
- Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) (Container)
- NYK Container Line
- Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd (K Line)
- NYK (Dry Bulk)
- Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) Tankers
- Nippon Yusen Kaisha (NYK Line) Tankers
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