Mexico Tourism Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, October 2011, Pages: 54
The Mexico Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Mexico's tourism industry.
Growth Continues in 2011
Data released by Secretaría de Turismo (Ministry of Tourism, Sectur) in September 2011 showed that growth continued in the first half of the year. Between January and June, tourist arrivals totalled 11.24mn, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year (y-o-y). The rate of growth has picked up since early in 2011, when the growth rate was 1.7% y-o-y.
However, growth remains weak and below the levels achieved before the economic downturn in 2007- 2008 started to have an impact on the tourism industry. Mexico continues to suffer as a result of the weak recovery in the US, as well as the negative reputational risk created by rising levels of violence. In addition, the prospect of renewed global economic weakness is likely to affect Mexico sharply, with the tourism industry’s recovery still barely established. Arrivals during the third quarter of 2011 will be crucial to determining whether Mexico’s tourism industry will achieve growth in 2011 or return to negative territory going into 2012.
Focus On Colima
The small central-western state of Colima is a relatively unknown part of Mexico in terms of international tourism but it is well known in Mexico as a relaxing location for a short or weekend break. The state government is keen to build on Colima’s attractiveness to domestic tourists to increase the number of foreign visitors. The state tourist office is carrying out an international marketing campaign, largely in the US, to try to raise Colima’s profile.
Interjet Considers Mexicana Purchase
Mexican airline Interjet said in September 2011 that it was considering bidding for major airline Mexicana, which stopped flights in mid-2010. Mexicana remains formally active but negotiations so far have failed to find a new buyer for the airline. Interjet, as a low-cost airline, is an unlikely purchaser for Mexicana, which was one of the country’s two major airlines before its financial collapse. Interjet has expanded its market share rapidly, however, picking up some of Mexicana’s old market share, and the potential bid suggests Interjet is positioning itself to become one of the leading players in the market.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Mexico Tourism SWOT
Mexico Political SWOT
Mexico Economic SWOT
Mexico Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Arrivals
Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2015
Accommodation
Table: Accommodation Data, 2007-2015
Expenditure
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2007-2015
Focus: Colima
Inbound Tourism
Table: Arrival Of Tourists At National Borders, 2007-2015
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2007-2015 (‘000, unless stated)
Market Overview – Travel
Commercial Airlines
Low-Cost Airlines
Cruises
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, 2011 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2011-2015 (US$/bbl)
H1N1 Update
Market Overview – Hospitality
Accommodation
Business Environment Outlook
Latin America Tourism Business Environment
Table: Latin America Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Latin America Security Ratings
Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Ratings
Mexico’s Security Risk Ratings
City Terrorism Ratings
Table: BMI Americas City Terrorism Index
Latin America Security Overview
Global Assumptions
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average)
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average)
Developed States
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
Emerging Markets
Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
Company Profiles
Aeroméxico
Grupo Posadas
Mexicana de Aviación
Meliá Hotels International
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings – Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting of Components
City Terrorism Ratings
Table: City Terrorism Rating Methodology
Sources
- Aeroméxico
- Grupo Posadas
- Mexicana de Aviación
- Meliá Hotels International
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