South Africa Tourism Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, October 2011, Pages: 63
The South Africa Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on South Africa's tourism industry.
Tourism Overview
Latest data for January-May 2011 show a favourable 7.3% increase in tourist arrivals, compared with the same five-month period in the previous year. Growth in the number of visitors from Europe was the weakest of all the source regions, at just 2.9% year-on-year (y-o-y). Arrivals from the key source market, Africa, were up a relatively strong 10.4% y-o-y. The strongest growth in visitors was from Asia, up a buoyant 26% y-o-y, although the region only accounted for just over 3% of total arrivals. In Europe, the key markets of the UK and Germany recorded very mixed fortunes, with growth of -3% and +17.5% y-oy respectively. Meanwhile, visitors from India were up a solid 42% y-o-y and arrivals from China increased 23%, although absolute numbers are relatively low (a total of some 64,000 tourists for both countries over January/May).
Hospitality
The most recent preliminary data for H111 show a downturn in the hospitality sector, with the total number of foreign and domestic tourist room nights in all accommodation establishments falling slightly over 8% compared with H110. The sector also weakened over the first two quarters, with negative growth of -4.5% y-o-y in Q1, deteriorating to -11.3% y-o-y in Q2. Figures for June were also down sharply, with the number of tourist room nights sold declining about 24% y-o-y, although this partly reflects a marked slowdown from strong growth in June 2010 due to the FIFA World Cup.
Forecast Scenario
BMI’s growth forecasts for foreign tourist arrivals are basically unchanged, with annual growth slowing markedly in 2011 but remaining favourable at 6% (from 15% in 2010), and then edging up in 2012. The outlook is underpinned by solid economic growth in Sub-Saharan African, of around 5% and over 6% in 2011 and 2012 respectively. The growth forecasts for the eurozone, however, have been revised down this quarter to 1.9% and 1.7% over the same period. BMI maintains the view for the South African rand to appreciate over the medium term – constraining international tourism – but have moderated the targets. BMI now sees the currency ending 2011 at ZAR6.7000/US$ (close to its current level) while previously they were targeting ZAR6.5000/US$. Also, the year-end forecasts for 2012 are ZAR8.4400/EUR and ZAR6.5000/US$.
O.R. Tambo International Airport
Latest data from Johannesburg’s O.R. Tambo International Airport (ORTIA) for April to July 2011 show very slight growth y-o-y for international traffic, which is favourable considering this period in 2010 partly corresponded with the World Cup. In FY10/11 (ending March), international passenger numbers grew an annual 6.3% to almost 8mn passengers.
South African Airways
In June, South African Airways (SAA) and TAP Portugal – both Star Alliance members – introduced new code-share services between Portugal and South Africa, operated by both carriers via London (Heathrow). As part of SAA’s growth strategy of strengthening already profitable routes and introducing new destinations (especially those with limited air services), the airline is about to introduce a number of new destinations to its African route network. SAA will commence new operations to Ndola (Zambia), Bujumbura (Burundi), Kigali (Rwanda) and Cotonou (Benin), from October 2011.
Sun International
In its financial results for the year ending June 30 2011, South Africa’s Sun International reported a 12% y-o-y rise in revenue to about ZAR8.9bn. Gaming revenue was up by the same percentage, to just under ZAR7.0bn, with income from operations in Chile up strongly. Revenue from rooms increased by a somewhat weaker 5% y-o-y to around ZAR900mn. Operating profit fell a marginal 1% y-o-y, to about ZAR1.6bn, and pre-tax profit came in at nearly ZAR1.1bn, a similar figure to the previous year. Overall group occupancy was down one percentage point at 66% and the average room rate was ZAR912, up an annual 2%. The company’s outlook is that hospitality and gaming revenues are only expected to improve marginally in the coming year, based on a generally negative global economic outlook.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
South Africa Tourism SWOT
South Africa Political SWOT
South Africa Economic SWOT
South Africa Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Arrivals
Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2015
Accommodation
Table: Hotels Data, 2007-2015
Expenditure
Table: Expenditure Data, 2007-2015
Inbound Tourism
Table: Tourist Arrivals By Region, 2007-2015
Table: Tourist Arrivals By Country, 2007-2015
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2007-2015
The ‘World Cup Effect’
Table: Key Tourism Source Markets That Participated In The 2010 World Cup
Market Overview – Travel
Airports
Commercial Airlines
Special Focus: Jet Fuel Costs
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, 2011 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2011-2015 (US$/bbl)
Market Overview – Hospitality
Accommodation Developments
Casinos
Table: Key Players In South Africa’s Hotel And Gaming Industry
Game Lodges
Regional Case Study: Accor
Table: Accor Hotel Business In Selected Middle East And Africa Countries, June 2011
Business Environment Outlook
Table: Middle East And Africa Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
South Africa’s Security Ratings
City Terrorism Ratings
Table: BMI’s Africa City Terrorism Index
Middle East And Africa Security Overview
Special Report: Crime
Global Assumptions
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average)
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average)
Developed States
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
Emerging Markets
Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
Company Profiles
South African Airways
Southern Sun
Sun International
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings – Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting of Components
City Terrorism Ratings
Table: City Terrorism Ratings Methodology
Sources
- South African Airways
- Southern Sun
- Sun International
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